Latino Population's Youthfulness Holds Down Voter Turnout
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Obama poster. (Creative Commons)
Nearly 7 percent of the electorate in last year's election was Latino, up more than 1 percent from the previous midterm election in 2006 and a certain sign that Latinos are going to be an even bigger factor in the 2012 presidential race.
Not as many Latinos vote compared to other groups such as whites, African-Americans and Asians. The problem is many of the Latinos are either not U.S. citizens or not old enough to vote. Among those eligible to vote, a large share of the population is under 30, which is an age demographic that is least likely to vote.
The study of the Latino electorate released Tuesday by the Pew Hispanic Center found only 42 percent of the Latino population is eligible to vote. That's the smallest segment of any minority group.
“When you look at the Hispanic demographics, particularly among native-born Hispanics, there are an awful lot of people under the age of 18,” said Mark Hugo Lopez, the associate director of the Pew Hispanic Center and the author of the study.
“What’s happening is a lot of those young people -- about 600,000 a year in the last few years -- have been turning 18. They are U.S.-born and they’re eligible to vote, but as we know, young people generally vote at lower rates than we see among the general population," Lopez said. "That’s part of the reason we see this rising gap between the number of Hispanics who are eligible to vote and the actual number who do vote.”
As the population ages and more of the Latinos graduate college, they are likely to become a large swing demographic in national elections.
Looking to next year’s presidential race, analysts are keen to see whether the soaring Latino population in states such as Florida, Virginia, Nevada, and Arizona will benefit Obama’s re-election bid.
Given their preference for Obama, he could gain ground in states such as Arizona and Texas, both of which he lost in 2008, simply by registering more Latino voters.
As Matt Barreto, pollster for Latino Decisions and University of Washington political scientist, said recently, “Even if there were no population growth, if you just did Latino voter registration drives, you could continue to dramatically grow the electorate.”
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