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NL Central Preview: Brewers Set to Take Hold

James Santelli |
March 23, 2011 | 3:38 a.m. PDT

Associate Sports Editor

Despite the overall weakness of the National League Central, it is likely to be one of the most competitive divisions in baseball.

The NL Central has produced three different champions the last three years: the Cubs in 2008, the Cardinals in 2009 and the Reds last season.

The 2011 campaign brings with it the potential for the fourth different pennant winner in as many years.

1. Milwaukee Brewers

Storyline: The Brewers hope the additions of pitchers Zack Greinke and Shaun Marcum will greatly improve a pitching staff that finished 26th in the majors last season in ERA and lead Milwaukee to its first division title since 1982.

Brewers ace Zack Greinke hopes to lead his new team to the playoffs. (Wikimedia Commons)
Brewers ace Zack Greinke hopes to lead his new team to the playoffs. (Wikimedia Commons)

Impact Player: 1B Prince Fielder will try to recover from a down year (well, for him). He's certainly well protected in the lineup by fellow power hitters Ryan Braun (LF) and Casey McGehee (3B). A big season in his contract year could earn him a healthy raise on the open market.

Fantasy Sleeper: Closer John Axford was highly effective in his first Major League season with a 2.48 ERA and an 11.8 K/9 ratio -- he also went 24-of-27 in save opportunities. At 28 years old, Axford has room to grow and is a good value as the 16th reliever picked on average in Yahoo! drafts.

Prediction: With a bona fide, power-hitting lineup, a now-strong rotation and a deep bullpen, new manager Ron Roenicke will lead the Brew Crew to their first-ever NL Central title.

2. Cincinnati Reds

Storyline: After being the surprise division winner a year ago, the young Reds look to pull off a repeat performance in 2011 with few changes to the team.

Impact Player: Everyone knows about 1B Joey Votto after he won the NL Most Valuable Player award in 2010. But teammate Jay Bruce also has MVP potential. Bruce, who was Baseball America's top prospect in 2008, broke out last year with a .281-.353-.493 slash line. The Reds' right fielder will turn 24 on April 3, and will only continue to improve as he enters his prime.

Fantasy Sleeper: If you're looking for starting pitching late in your draft, Travis Wood is a fine option. Wood maintained a 3.51 ERA over 17 starts in his 2010 rookie season and should pile up wins with the run support Cincinnati's lineup will give him.

Prediction: Stiff competition from Milwaukee and St. Louis will keep the Reds from making a second straight playoff appearance.

3. St. Louis Cardinals

Storyline: The Albert Pujols will-he-sign-or-won't-he-sign saga provided plenty of offseason distraction, but Pujols hopes to win the World Series in what could be his final season in St. Louis.

Impact Player: Jaime Garcia plays second fiddle in the Cards' rotation to ace Chris Carpenter, even though Garcia had a better ERA, K/9 and xFIP than Carpenter last season. If Garcia can adequately handle increased innings and keep his walk rate down in his second season, he could quickly become an elite young NL starter.

Fantasy Sleeper: Jake Westbrook was rejuvenated by a midseason trade from Cleveland to St. Louis, earning a 3.48 ERA, a 6.6 K/9 rate, and a 1.25 WHIP in 12 starts with the Cardinals. Keep an eye on him in the free agency portion of your league, as he's been drafted in only 4 percent of Yahoo! leagues.

Prediction: According to ZIPS, the Adam Wainwright injury reduced St. Louis's odds of winning the division from 35 percent to 20 percent. That's a huge jump and says a lot about Wainwright's value. Without him in the rotation, the Cards will slide in behind the Brewers and Reds.

4. Chicago Cubs

Storyline: The team fell from NL contender to fifth-place finisher in 2010 and hope a busy offseason of additions will reverse its fortunes this season.

Impact Player: Temperamental starter Carlos Zambrano looked to be at the point of eruption after being assigned to the bullpen twice last season. But cooler heads prevailed and the 29-year-old rebounded. He returned to the rotation, going 8-0 with a 1.41 ERA and 1.19 WHIP in his final 11 starts. That type of dominant performance could keep the Cubs in the division race.

Fantasy Sleeper: He may not be an everyday player to start the season, but outfielder Tyler Colvin has too much power to be kept on the bench. In his rookie season, Colvin hit 20 homers in 358 at-bats, finishing with an outstanding .246 ISO (isolated power). Colvin should produce from a starting position if Alfonso Soriano gets hurt (it's been known to happen).

Prediction: The addition of Matt Garza should improve an average rotation, but the Cubs' aging lineup won't produce the offense needed to return Chicago to the playoffs.

5. Houston Astros

Storyline: What is life like for Houston in the post-Lance Berkman, post-Roy Oswalt era?

Astros RF Hunter Pence (Creative Commons)
Astros RF Hunter Pence (Creative Commons)
Impact Player: Hunter Pence has become one of the best all-around right fielders in the National League. A true five-tool player, Pence anchors the Astros' lineup (with, coincidentally, exactly 25 homers each of the last three seasons) and provides great defense. He has also stayed healthy and is just entering the prime of his career at 27 years old.

Fantasy Sleeper: In his first full season as a Major League starting pitcher in 2010, Bud Norris posted a 9-10 record and a 4.92 ERA. But he was better than his numbers would indicate, with a 9.25 K/9 ratio and a 3.96 xFIP, and should only improve at 26. Norris has only been drafted in five percent of Yahoo! leagues, so he should be available when he starts putting up a strong ERA and high strikeout totals.

Prediction: With Carlos Lee on the decline, the offense does not have enough impact bats to score many runs. Though the rotation looks good, it won't be enough to contend for the division.

6. Pittsburgh Pirates

Storyline: New manager Clint Hurdle looks to end an 18-year streak of losing seasons with a developing young ballclub.

Impact Player: At 24 years old, Andrew McCutchen is already the best full-time center fielder in the Major Leagues. He's a potential 20-homer, 30-stolen base, .820-OPS performer and plays outstanding outfield defense.

Fantasy Sleeper: Ryan Doumit may be one of the worst defensive catchers in baseball, but his catcher eligibility is what's important. Doumit hits right-handed pitchers better than most catchers, with an .832 OPS in 314 such plate appearances last year. Pick up Doumit if he's available in your league, start him at catcher against RHPs and enjoy the production.

Prediction: A weak rotation can't carry Pittsburgh out of the Central cellar, but the young lineup will lead a nice improvement from last year's 57-win campaign.

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James Santelli is also a contributor for Pittsburgh Sports Report. To reach him, click here. Follow him on Twitter, @JamesSantelli.

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