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What's Next for Egypt After Mubarak's Refusal

Tom Dotan |
February 10, 2011 | 4:21 p.m. PST

Associate News Editor

 

Courtesy of Creative Commons
Courtesy of Creative Commons
Egyptians crowding into Al Tahrir Square in anticipation of President Hosni Mubarak’s announcement of resignation were met with something far less decisive; it appears that to many it was far less than satisfactory.

Rather than a full abdication of his position, as watchers around the world expected, Mubarak instead chose to designate his powers to his vice president Omar Suleiman, making him the “de facto” leader of the country.  It was a constitutional change that didn’t seem to calm protestors looking for a more revolutionary move.

It is not clear what role the US or other governments will have in the course of events. In Mubarak's speech, he spoke out defiantly to other countries, informing them, "we will prove that we are not followers of others, that we do not take instructions from others."

“Egypt will explode,” Mohamed ElBaradei, the head of the National Association for Change posted on Twitter immediately after the announcement. “Army must save the country now.”

ElBaradei, who many see as a potential replacement for Mubarek, has been encouraging the protests since they exploded January 25. Later on CNN Elbaradei explained:

“People were expecting that we would then move into a transitional period where you would have a government of national unity, to carry on for a year to prepare for fair and free elections. There is no way that the Egyptian people right now are ready to accept either Mubarak or his vice president.”

The consensus amongst experts and journalists on the ground there is that protestors, furious over what they saw as further deception by Mubarek, will descend on Tahrir Square and the presidential palace tomorrow in the largest and most violent day of protests yet.

But the Egyptian military—perhaps the deciding party during the chaos—may be divided in its response to the protestors. Egyptian Blogger Hossam El-Hamalawy points out that many of the country’s top generals are complicit in the perceived corruption.

Middle East Professor Bruce Rutherford said, in an interview with CNN.com, that it remains to be seen exactly what side the military is on. “There is no evidence that the military supports democracy or even considers it a good idea.”

Suleiman, in a speech, exhorted the youth in Egypt, which has been the accelerant to the protests, to “go back home, back to work.”

There are as of yet no clear plans on either side, but it seems unlikely that Suleiman’s first decree as Egyptian leader will be widely adhered to.

 

Email Tom Dotan here



 

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