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Neon Tommy - Annenberg digital news

If Gaddafi Flees, Where Would He Go?

Staff Reporters |
February 21, 2011 | 10:05 p.m. PST

Libyan Leader Col.
Libyan Leader Col.

As protests across Libya continue, international attention has turned to Libyan leader Col. Muammar Gaddafi's next move.

Though Gaddafi has indicated that he's willing to do anything to keep his regime together, media outlets have reported that his hold on Libya is quickly weakening. The reports seemed so concrete that rumors started circling about Gaddafi fleeing to one of his mansions in Venezuela amid violence in Tripoli and Benghazi, which Venezuelan officials have denied.

"He is not traveling to Venezuela," Venezuela's Information Minister Andres Izarra told Reuters.

Libyan officials have also refuted the claims, saying that Gaddafi is in the Libyan capital, calling the reports "groundless."

"[Libyan Foreign Minister Moussa] Koussa said ... Gaddafi is in Tripoli, exercising the powers given to him by the state and addressing the situation in the country, thereby refuting the comments made to the press in an irresponsible manner by British Foreign Secretary William Hague," Venezuelan Foreign Minister Nicolas Maduro said in a statement.

Even if the rumors are not true, speculation has begun about where Gadaffi could go if he were to lose control of Libya. Venezuela tops the list, since Gadaffi owns several pieces of real estate there and has a good relationship with President Hugo Chavez.

Other options exist within Africa because of Gadaffi's pro-Arab union philosophies and his recently increased monetary stake in the African Union. However, other actions in Liberia and Sierra Leone that were tied to Gadaffi may affect his position with African leaders, experts say.

"He has enough friends to be able to find a safe haven in many parts of Africa, but obviously there would be a lot of people scared to take him," Adekeye Adebajo, Executive Director of the Centre for Conflict Resolution said. "A lot of insecure African leaders would be nervous to have him on their territory."

Another possible safe haven is South Africa, due to Gaddafi's well-known relationship with Nelson Mandela, after Gadaffi openly supported the National African Congress.

"Those who feel irritated by our friendship with President Gaddafi can go jump in the pool," Mandela once said.

However, analysts have said that Africa should be Gaddafi's last choice for refuge.

"It's not as easy to run away as it used to be," Antony Goldman, a London-based analyst said. "This is the problem in Africa: what seemed a good idea today can change tomorrow."



 

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