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After Tunisia and Egypt, Who Is Next?

Mary Slosson |
February 11, 2011 | 12:17 p.m. PST

Executive Producer

Anti-Ahmadinejad Protester in Los Angeles (Photo Creative Commons)
Anti-Ahmadinejad Protester in Los Angeles (Photo Creative Commons)
The rapid success of the popular revolutions in Tunisia and Egypt have observers scanning the rest of the Middle East for other weak regimes.  Syria, Yemen, and Jordan have been attracting attention recently, but on the day of former Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak’s downfall, two further countries have entered the spotlight: Libya, and Iran.

Libya

Wedged between Tunisia and Egypt, which witnessed historic back-to-back popular uprisings that resulted in the overthrow of incumbent heads of state Ben Ali and Hosni Mubarak, Libya must be feeling the heat.

While no plans for popular protests have emerged, longtime Libyan President Muammar al-Qaddafi called Mubarak to express support immediately after the Egyptian leaders non-resignation speech on Thursday evening.

The signal of support hours before newly minted Egyptian Vice President Omar Suleiman’s announcement that Mubarak was no longer in power highlights Qaddafi’s dictatorial similarities with Mubarak.  Qaddafi plans to eventually pass political power along to one of his sons.

As MSNBC writes,

In some countries, even the prospect of dynastic succession is now enough to ignite popular outrage. This might give pause to dictators like Muammar Qaddafi of Libya, two of whose sons are said to be leading candidates to succeed him after he is gone.

The emergence of a vocal opposition movement in the coming days will be a sign of potential weakness to look for in the coming days.

Iran

Meanwhile, the Iranian regime has been vocal in its support for the uprisings in Tunisia and Egypt, with Iranian Foreign Minister Ali Akbar Salehi offering his congratulations Friday.

“We congratulate the great nation of Egypt on this victory and we share their happiness,” he said.

Mubarak’s downfall coincided with the 32nd anniversary of Islamic Revolution and the fall of the Shah in Iran.

While Iranian leaders have expressed their support for the uprisings, members of Iran’s opposition Green Movement have planned for a demonstration Monday to express solidarity with the Egyptian people.

After massive popular uprisings in the country in 2009 following the re-election of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad failed to bring about regime change, the planned protests for Monday will be a key event in indicating whether the opposition will try to dismantle the Iranian regime again.

Reach Executive Producer Mary Slosson here.  Follow her on Twitter @maryslosson.



 

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