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Egypt Opposition Leader Speaks Out As U.S. Urges Political Reform

Laura J. Nelson |
January 26, 2011 | 4:55 p.m. PST

Staff Reporter

The Egyptian Parliament in Cairo. Courtesy of Creative Commons.
The Egyptian Parliament in Cairo. Courtesy of Creative Commons.

Egyptian officials continued a crackdown on anti-government protestors Wednesday as the United States urged one of its closest Middle Eastern allies to accept political reform. 

Police armed with batons, tear gas and rubber bullets have confronted and arrested more than 860 protestors. The Egyptian government has blocked social media sites Facebook and Twitter, which have been widely credited with organizing the protests that began yesterday, the Wall Street Journal reported. Three protestors and a police officer were killed Tuesday. 

In the midst of the revolt, a former U.N. official known as one of the highest-profile opponents of the current Egyptian regime is headed back to Cairo despite receiving a number of death threats.

In a conversation with Newsweek, Mohamed El Baradei called for a transition to a new government in Egypt, calling the current regime illegitimate because its last parliamentary elections were "completely rigged."

In Cairo, more than 2,000 protestors marched down a major downtown boulevard near the Nile when riot police with helmets and shields charged the crowd, the Associated Press reported. 

Among those 860 arrested was the Guardian's Cairo reporter, Jack Shenker. While locked in the back of a security truck, he filed a 12-minute story on an audio recorder that hadn't been confiscated. Listen to it here.

White House spokesman Robert Gibbs has not said whether the Obama administration is still supporting Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak, whose country has long been one of the United State's strongest Middle Eastern allies. 


The U.S. and Egypt

 Secretary of State Hillary Clinton pressed the Eygyptian government to allow peaceful protests and restore social media access within the country.  

"We support the universal rights of the Egyptian people including the rights to freedom of expression, association and assembly," Clinton said.  "... We believe strongly that the Egyptian government has an important opportunity at this moment in time, to implement political, economic and social reforms."

A senior official from Mubarak's party, the National Democratic Party of Egypt, told the Wall Street Journal that Clinton's comments were "balanced."

Clinton's statement marks a subtle change from her preliminary statement Tuesday, which was highly supportive of the Egyptian government: "The Egyptian government is stable and looking for ways to respond to the legitimate needs and interests of the Egyptian people." Her speech Wednesday more effectively backed both the protestors and the established government, reflecting a growing sense of political unrest in Egypt. 

Dr. Nezar AlSayyad, chair of the University of California-Berkeley's Middle Eastern Studies department, said the change in statement may damage the U.S.-Egyptian relationship. Egyptians will think the U.S. is trying to hedge their bets, he said, since it's not yet clear how the protests will shake out. 

"The US reacting to international affairs is usually fast, but generally only thoughtful after the fact," AlSayyad said. "That was a very smart strategic move, but it will be looked on in Egypt as 'standard US policy.'"

In one of the first apparent concessions to protestors, prime minister Ahmed Nazif said the country's leadership was committed to freedom of expression by "legitimate means," Al Jazeera reported


Unrest in Tunisia and Egypt 

Analysts have seen parallels, but not complete similarities, between the tens of thousands who surrounded the Egyptian parliament Tuesday and last week's protests in Tunisia that ousted Tunisian president Zine al-Abidine Ben Ali. 

"Egypt is vulnerable right now, but it's nowhere as vulnerable as Tunisia was and is," said . "The regime, despite its dictatorial tendencies, and despite its rule for 30 years, is not as oppressive as Tunisia." 

Ben Ali, Tunisia's president of 23 years, fled Tunisia with his family on Jan. 15 after a month of protests over economic issues came to a head outside the interior ministry in Tunis. The police threw tear gas at demonstrators and Ben Ali, 74, declared a state of emergency shortly before fleeing to Saudi Arabia with his family.   

AlSayyad said no one expected Ben Ali to leave, and said the characterization of Tunisia's revolts as an "Arab revolution" is entirely overblown. He said the same thing won't happen in Egypt, which has about 80 million residents, more stability historically and less oppression. 

"Mubarak won't flee Egypt because he has nowhere to go," AlSayyad said. "Not only would he lose credibility, but he would want to avoid the fate of Ben Ali."  


The Society of the Muslim Brotherhood

 U.S. officials uneasy with the Egyptian unrest draw parallels not only to Tunisia, but to the 1979 Islamic Revolution, when Ayatollah Khomeni gradually wrested political power from secular and leftist parties, resulting in more than 30 years of theocratic rule. 

 That is a possibility in Egypt, AlSayyad said. He called Mubarak's National Democratic Party, which he said is largely run by son Gamal, a "corrupt but functioning political machine" that reacts to what's happening on the streets. In light of the chants of protestors — "Gamal, tell your father Egyptians hate you" and "Down with the tyrant! We don't want you!" — Mubarak or his son seeking election later this year would be unwise, AlSayyad said. 

 "The regime is definitely very scared," AlSayyad said. "I think what's likely to happen is they'll get scared substantially, to the point that they'll give in to some of the demands of the protestors." 

 Murabak officials told the Journal that they considered many of the demands of the protestors legitimate, but feared that conceding to those demands would allow the Society of the Muslim Brotherhood to hijack the government. 

What they mean by that, AlSayyad said, is that is the Mubarak government allows citizens a full-fledged democratic election, the Society of the Muslim Brotherhood could take power. 

 That powerful Islamist organization, started in Egypt in the 1920s, is not recognized as a legal political party in Egypt and is not allowed to list candidates on ballots. But Members of the Brotherhood have seen gains before in the Egyptian parliament – most notably, in 2005, when the Brotherhood won 20 percent of the parliament by running as independent candidates. 

"They made it very difficult for individuals to run unless they were part of an authorized party, and no Islamist organizations were authorized," AlSayyad said. "It turns out that was a most unwise thing to do, since the protestors are now calling the last election 'fake.'"

Many Egyptians aren't fond of the Brotherhood because they consider it a failure as a leadership organization, AlSayyad said. But because the political climate seems hostile toward Mubarak and his son Gamal, the Brotherhood could win elections simply by virtue of not being the NDP. However, those fearful of an Islamist-style regime may not welcome the advent of a Brotherhood government. 


To reach staff reporter Laura J. Nelson, click here. Follow her on Twitter: @laura_nelson.



 

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