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Egyptian Military Emerges As Nation's Steward

Kevin Douglas Grant |
January 30, 2011 | 1:04 p.m. PST

Executive Editor

Courtesy Al Jazeera
Courtesy Al Jazeera
As the international community's support for Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak dwindles, the Egyptian military looks assured to take up the mantle of power.

The beloved military, which has allowed demonstrators much leeway since the country erupted Jan. 25, is deeply ingrained in Egypt's power structure already.  

CNN provides some valuable context:  "Egypt's government is not just Hosni Mubarak's government, it is a military government. Generals and former generals control much of the government, and many are influential in business.

Since the military overthrew Egypt's monarchy in 1952, senior military officers have constituted Egypt's new aristocracy, holding on to positions of privilege from the socialist 1950s and 1960s to the capitalist present."

In addition, most Egyptian men perform compulsory military service, strengthening the bond between many protestors and the soldiers charged with keeping order.

Thus, when tanks and F-16 fighter jets enveloped Cairo late Sunday, they were greeted with waves and cheers.  Demonstrators have no qualm with their soldiers, but they hate Mubarak and his police force for years for torture and neglect.

The key question has become: if Mubarak refuses to leave, will the military back him or the people?

Robert Fisk, part of a fairly homogenous rabble of analysts predicting Mubarak's imminent fall, reported a highly telling detail in the Independent on Sunday: "[Military tank] crews, in battledress and smiling and in some cases clapping their hands, made no attempt to wipe off the graffiti that the crowds had spray-painted on their tanks. 'Mubarak Out – Get Out', and 'Your regime is over, Mubarak' have now been plastered on almost every Egyptian tank on the streets of Cairo." 

The United States has been working with the military, which it has funded lavishly since Mubarak took power 30 years ago, to shepherd in a peaceful transition of power.  Egypt's military chief of staff Lt. Gen. Sami Hafez Anan just spent two days at the Pentagon, where American leaders urged him to "exercise restraint."

So it doesn't look like a military crackdown is forthcoming.  Instead, military leaders will attempt to preserve some level of stability while working with whatever group emerges to take Mubarak's place.  Most recently, the popular opposition group Muslim Brotherhood has backed Nobel Peace Prize winner Mohamed ElBaradei as the lead spokesman for negotiations with Mubarak's government.

As goes Egypt's military, so goes Egypt.



 

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