Democratic gubernatorial candidate Jerry Brown leads Republican Meg Whitman by nearly 13 points among likely voters, according to a recent poll compiled by the USC College of Letters, Arts & Sciences in conjunction with the Los Angeles Times.

Surveying more than 1,500 registered voters in California including 922 likely voters, the poll shows Brown leading Whitman 52 to 39 percent. Only 3 percent of likely voters are planning to vote for another candidate, with 4 percent remaining undecided.

The USC/Los Angeles Times Poll has a margin of error of +/- 2.5 for registered voters and +/- 3.2 for likely voters.

Brown maintains a significant edge in the polls among Latino voters, leading by 36 percentage points over Whitman, 52 to 23. The percentage nearly doubles Brown’s 19 percent advantage in the polls heading into September and continues to play a major role in deciding the next Californian governor on November 2.

“The Latino vote is very important and it will make a critical difference,” said Manuel Pastor, a USC professor and polling analyst. “Whitman’s declining favor with Latino voters might be the result of several recent moments, not only the incident involving her former housekeeper, but also her statements during the debate at Fresno State, broadcast in Spanish through Univision.”

Pastor said that the first debate in Spanish helped solidify the Latino vote for Brown, as Brown came out in support of major immigration legislation such as the DREAM Act – legislation to allow undocumented youth to gain citizenship in return for attending college or entering the military.

“Whitman seemed to indicate that she thought the student was taking the place of a citizen, and that may not have played well with Latino voters who were listening to the debate,” Pastor said.

A majority of Latinos voters surveyed, 51 percent, said that they disagreed with the way Whitman handled revelations about her housekeeper Nicandra Diaz, compared to 41 percent who thought she handled it correctly.

“It does seem that the incident involving the housekeeper, Nicandra Diaz, had a major effect on Latino voters,” Pastor said. “I think that there is a perception that the treatment would not have been as generous as many Latino’s would have liked… many Latino’s have undocumented family members in the workforce.”

According to the 2010 Census, Latino’s make up roughly 37 percent of all California residents. Latino voters are projected to make up roughly 16.5 percent of voters in the November election.

Brown’s advantage among voters registered as “Decline to State” has also increased significantly since the last round of polling in September, leading by 37 points compared to only 6 points in September.

“When you look again at the polling figures, the fact is she’s got a problem that is not issue related… it’s a personal one,” said Jane Junn, research director of the USC /Los Angeles Times Poll.

Although a majority of Latinos said they would support Brown in the election, Darry Sragow – USC professor and interim director of the USC College/Los Angeles Times Poll – said the Latino vote is not the only reason Brown is projected to win the election.

“There is movement by gender as well,” Sragow, said. “Brown is also doing very well with ‘Decline to States,’ so its not just the Latino vote that is deciding the race for governor.”

Of those who have already voted, 3 percent of them said they voted for Brown and 38 percent voted for Whitman.

Race for the California Senate: Can Carly Fiorina Unseat Barbara Boxer?

Coinciding with the nation’s anti-incumbent sentiments, Republican challenger for Senate Carly Fiorina continues to make up ground against Senate stalwart and incumbent Democrat Barbara Boxer, trailing 50 to 42 percent in the most recent USC College/Los Angeles Times poll.

“Eight points is a lot and its outside the margin of error, but there are still a potential sign for hope [for Fiorina],” Junn said. “The gap between favorable and unfavorable [sentiment amongst voters] is about the same. What that means is that people don’t like Boxer that much. She is vulnerable as an incumbent.”

Boxer leads in the increasingly important category of being “identifiable” by likely voters, with 95 percent of voters saying they could identify Boxer. Only 83 percent of likely voters were able to identify Fiorina, including just 62 percent of Latino voters.

Sragow said the Senate race remains closer due to a lack of “defining moments” that have scored the Californian gubernatorial race.

“Voters got a few of those unscripted moments beyond how the candidate is packaged [in the race for governor],” Sragow said. That hasn’t really happened yet in the Senate race.”

According to a USC/Los Angeles Times Poll conducted in May, Boxer led Fiorina in a supposed head-to-head matchup during the primary season, 44 to 38 percent. However, the same poll showed Boxer trailing to a hypothetical Republican opponent. The May findings also showed that only 34 percent of registered voters would vote for Boxer, with 49 percent saying they would vote for someone else.

Broken down by gender, Boxer leads Fiorina 53 to 36 percent amongst likely female voters, while Fiorina leads Boxer male voters, 48 to 46 percent.

A Majority of Likely Voters Say Marijuana Should Stay Illegal

Fifty-one percent of likely voters in California say they would vote against Proposition 19, which would allow local governments to regulate and tax the sale, distribution and commercial production of marijuana. 39 percent of likely voters said they were in favor of the proposition.

The measure would also permit Californians 21 years or older to possess, harvest and even transport marijuana for personal use.

According to the October 13-20 USC/Los Angeles Times Poll, support for Proposition 19 varied immensely across age groups. While 55 percent of likely voters between the ages of 18 and 29 said they support legalization, only 28 percent of those over the age of 65 said they support the measure. 60 percent of voters 65 and older said they were against outright legalization.

The strongest opposition to legalizing marijuana came from likely Latino voters, with 57 percent against the proposition. Likely White and Black voters oppose the measure at a relatively similar percentage, just under 50 percent.

Pastor said the Latino conservative family dynamic and perceived associations between marijuana and crime explain why Latino voters are the strongest opponents of Proposition 19.

“The use of marijuana is associated with criminality in the Latino community, and that is of major concern for voters,” Pastor said. “The arrests of Whites for marijuana is far less than in Latino and Black communities, although Whites are statistically higher users.”

Additionally, the poll found women were more likely than men to oppose legalizing marijuana, as 53 percent of women said they would vote against Proposition 19 in November. For likely male voters, only 45 percent said they would vote against the proposition.

About the USC/Los Angeles Times Poll

The USC/Los Angeles Times Poll is the largest statewide poll of voters in California.

The polling project, a series of six statewide public opinion polls that began Nov. 8, 2009, will continue until the Nov. 2 elections.

The most recent poll, conducted October 13-20, surveyed more than 1,500 registered voters, with a likely voter sample of more than 900 voters.

 

 

To reach Benjamin Gottlieb, click here. Follow Benjamin on Twitter @benjamin_max.

 

Editor's Note (10/25/10): A previous version of this piece incorrectly stated the last name of Manuel Pastor as Castells. We regret the error.