Giants-Rangers World Series Preview
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The 2010 World Series opens Wednesday in San Francisco. It's the first World Series appearance for the Texas Rangers and the first appearance in seven years for the Giants, who have yet to win a championship since moving from New York to the Bay Area.
Neither team was expected to make it this far, creating a series that is either thrillingly unpredictable or unprecedentedly boring, depending on how you look at it.
Here's how the Neon Tommy Sports staff views the breakdown between the Giants and Rangers heading into Game 1:
Starting pitching
Giants: A TV nightmare they’re calling it, those East Coast folks. But Tim Lincecum vs. Cliff Lee is enough to draw a few eyes to the tube on Wednesday for the World Series opener. It’s as marquee as they come. Lincecum, the pocket-sized righty with the Freak-ish arm, more than held his own against another elite hurler in the NLCS, splitting against Roy Halladay. In his postseason debut, Lincecum dazzled at AT&T Park, fanning 14 Braves in a two-hit shutout. He is a two-time NL Cy Young award winner who, despite falling to earth this season, still went 16-10 with a 3.43 ERA.
For the Giants, however, depth is the luxury. The ERAs actually get lower and lower as you move down the depth chart.
Matt Cain, who has a long-documented, fun-spirited competition with his Freak-ish counterpart, went 13-11 with a 3.14 ERA. In two playoff games, he’s allowed just nine hits.
Jonathan Sanchez, a young lefty, had a breakout year, going 13-9 (3.07 ERA). And speaking of young, Madison Bumgarner has been hailed as one of the top prospects in baseball for a number of years. This year he showed why. In his first full season with the Gigantes — at the tender age of 21 — he went 7-6 with a 3.00 ERA. He is the youngest San Francisco Giant to start a game and win a postseason game in team history. The Giants’ rotation is so strong, Barry Zito — the $126-million man with a Cy Young Award on his mantle — was left off the postseason roster.
Rangers: You’d think a guy who’s pitched for four teams in two years is an over-the-hill journeyman with fading stuff. Not so with Lee, who is one of the few aces that can go toe-to-toe with Lincecum. Unlike Lincecum, Lee has plenty of postseason experience, and success. After starting his career with the Indians, Lee became a Cy Young Award winner with the Phillies. He started Game 1 of the 2009 World Series, where he pitched a couple game win. He also won Game 5. This year, a short stint with Seattle turned fortuitous when he was traded to the red-shot Rangers. Overall, he’s 7-0 with a 1.26 ERA in his playoff starts.
Following Lee, there is a significant drop-off, though there is talent. Colby Lewis (a righty) has done a nice job in the playoffs (1.45 ERA), as has C.J. Wilson, a 15-game winner.
Talk is that the Rangers might go to a three-man rotation, setting Lee up for Game 1, 4 and 7. Tommy Hunter would provide an extra set-up man, with plenty of innings in him.
Advantage: Giants
Relief pitching
Giants: The Giants have made all the right moves. No bigger was acquiring a shutdown lefty specialist in Javier Lopez before the trade deadline. Lopez came to San Fran by way of Pittsburgh in an exchange for Joe Martinez and John Bowker. He’s gone 4-2 with a 2.34 ERA, providing the much-needed lefty talent in middle relief. So too has Ramon Ramirez (2.99 ERA).
The Giants also were right in sticking with Sergio Romo, despite a humbling couple outings against the Braves to open the playoffs. All year, Romo was the eighth inning set-up man to Brian Wilson. His ERA was 2.18. Romo rediscovered his groove shortly after the meltdowns to win back Bruce Bochy’s confidence. Santiago Casilla has been as good as Romo. Jeremy Affeldt has struggled, for his standards, in a small role for the Giants. However, he was big as ever in the NLCS clincher after Sanchez was yanked in just the third inning. He kickstarted a heroic bullpen effort — one that included five total arms, sealing the World Series trip.
Wilson, the closer, led the league and tied a Giants’ record with 48 saves. Erratic as he is — on and off the field; case one, the tats and forever haunting facial hair — the job gets done.
Rangers: Rookie closer Neftali Feliz has yet to be tested much in the playoffs, but does sport a 100 mph fastball. Behind him, Alexi Ogando only just made his MLB debut on June 15. He’s been great, but does he have the mettle to mix with the best deep into October?
Darren Oliver has beat many a batter, not to mention fathertime. Much will be expected from the once-Angel veteran. He’s pitched for nine total teams, and this is his second stint with Texas. Darren O’Day has also been a strong arm with a 2.03 ERA. Derek Holland (4.08 ERA), Michael Kirkman (1.65 ERA) and Dustin Nippert (4.29 ERA) might also see time.
Advantage: Giants
Infield
Giants: Aubrey Huff leads the lineup in the infield, a key free-agent signing during the winter. Huff’s enjoying life after stops in Tampa Bay, Houston, Baltimore and Detroit — all perennial losers during his stay. This is his first post-season after 11 years. The 34-year-old underrated first baseman had a career year, batting .290 with 26 home runs and 86 RBIs.
Outside Huff, the Giants are shaky. Freddy Sanchez (second base) is a former batting champ, but he’s also prone to injury. He missed a good chunk of time early in the season with a shoulder injury, but did have a fantastic NLCS. Like Huff, it is Sanchez’s first postseason after starting his career with Pittsburgh. He is a three-time all-star.
At shortstop, despite an injury-laden season, Edgar Renteria brings a clutch veteran bat. He’s seen enough post-season games to make up for the green eyes. Renteria will play shortstop or hit the bench, when the Giants opt for Juan Uribe.
Uribe’s typical position is the hotspot. At times, Uribe looks like he’s swinging a flyswatter at a bug up there, flailing hopelessly at bad pitches. At other times, he nearly tears the cover off the ball. The Giants forgive his embarrassing pitch selection because he hit 24 home runs with 85 RBIs. He also batted below .250.
Rangers: The Rangers, ironically, are weakest at first base but solid otherwise. Mitch Moreland, a rookie call-up in July, is one of the weaker first basemen in the league. He’d be out of the lineup if Jorge Cantu did anything to deserve the job. In 47 games, Moreland batted .255.
From there, it gets better, starting with Ian Kinsler. Despite injuries, he’s turned it on in the playoffs. In the past, he’s exhibited plenty of power, but showcased a more all-around game this season. He set a career high in walks and improved his base-running.
At shortstop, Elvis Andrus is another youngster coming off his first All-Star selection, as a reserve. He swiped 32 bases, and has only gotten better in the playoffs, where he’s hit .333.
But it’s at third base where the advantage really swings the Rangers’ way. Michael Young is the key cog, a veteran who’s played his entire career with Texas. He has the most hits in Rangers’ history, as well as the most at-bats. He is a six-time All-Star.
Advantage: Rangers
Outfield
Giants: Cody Ross is the marquee name here (as strange as that sounds). The journeyman rightfielder hit .350 with three homers and five RBI against a very good Phillies pitching staff, earning him NLCS MVP honors. He's as hot as a Brazilian swimsuit model right now and shows no sign of cooling. The Giants will lean heavily on him in Game 1 versus Cliff Lee, against whom Ross is 1-for-2 lifetime with a home run and four RBI.
Leftfielder Pat Burrell started off batting well against the Braves, only to fizzle later in the series. He did the same against the Phils. But he's hitting .333 lifetime against pitchers on the Rangers' staff. Considering how streaky he was during the latter stages of the regular season, it's reasonable to assume he's primed for a breakout series (especially given how home run friendly the Ballpark in Arlington is). Look for him to have a multiple home run series and a number of key hits.
Andres Torres rounds out the Giants' outfield. He's the guy who needs to step up most for them to succeed. His on-base percentage is down 35 points in the playoffs and he's walked just three times compared to 14 strikeouts. As San Francisco's leadoff hitter, fans are expecting more out of him. However, it's tough to know what to expect out of him in this series. The 34-year-old has just four lifetime at-bats against Texas.
Rangers: Herein lies Texas' greatest advantage. They have arguably the best offensive outfield in the league.
Josh Hamilton, the ALCS MVP and a front-runner for the AL MVP award as well, has been a monster. He hit .350 in the ALCS and torched the Yankee pitching staff to the tune of four homers and seven RBI. He's as locked in right now as Mark Zuckerberg during a programming session. Fortunately for the Giants, the only starting pitcher he's faced on their staff is Matt Cain, which should add an element of uncertainty to an otherwise torrid projected performance. Still, he's going to be difficult to contain in Texas, where he's hitting .390 with 22 homers this season.
Nelson Cruz has been formidable at home as well (.371, 13 big flies), but he has been plagued by minor injuries this season (most recently a hamstring injury during the Yankees series), which should cut down on his ability to steal bases. That's good news for the Giants, whose ace, Tim Lincecum, is notoriously bad at holding runners. Not only will Cruz be somewhat dinged up, he'll also be playing out of position for the games in San Francisco. He'll be moved to left field to make way for designated hitter Vladimir Guerrero, who will be forced to play the field in Texas' away games, creating a potential defensive disadvantage for Texas. (Then again, the Giants will be starting lead-footed Pat Burrell in left. So much for that advantage.)
Speaking of Guerrero, he finally woke up in Game 6 of the ALCS, knocking in three runs (his first RBIs of the postseason) to help the Rangers to a 6-1, series-clinching win. "Bad Vlad" has looked overmatched throughout the postseason, but he's a veteran with a liftime batting average of .280 in the playoffs. Don't sleep on him. Except on defense -- then you can sleep on him like a college student coming off an all-nighter. He's going to be bad, bad, bad.
At home, the Rangers will shift Cruz back to right field and alternate between Jeff Francoeur and David Murphy in left. They'll use Francoeur against left-handed pitchers and Murphy against righties. Murphy will also serve as Guerrero's defensive replacement in the later innings of games at AT&T Park. He has not traditonally done well against Giants pitching.
Advantage: Rangers
Coaching
Giants: Bruce Bochy has done an excellent job managing San Francisco this season. Who would have guessed that the Giants, with the measley lineup they had on Opening Day, would be in the World Series right now? Not many.
That's a testament to the job Bochy has done this season.
The Giants' skipper isn't one of the most well-regarded managers in the league. No one would ever excuse him of being a master strategist. He has, however, mixed and matched his hodge podge lineup to perfection. Whether deciding to ride the hot hand of Cody Ross (a move that paid huge dividends as Ross earned NLCS MVP) or deciding to bench defensive liabilities Pablo Sandoval and Mike Fontenot in favor of Edgar Renteria and Juan Uribe, Bochy has made the right call in almost every scenario. There's a reason the Giants are 6-1 in games decided by one run this postseason. Bochy has simply pulled all the right strings at all the right times (Sergio Romo relief appearances notwithstanding).
Add to that his extraordinary calm under pressure in Game 6 against the Phillies (a game he managed brilliantly) and it's fair to say San Francisco has a sizable advantage in the coaching department.
Rangers: Ron Washington is a players coach on a team loaded with great offensive players and the most impressive postseason ace in Cliff Lee that we've seen in a while (possibly ever). It's not exactly rocket science what he does on a daily basis. He slots his starting pitchers where they fall in terms of rest and trots out a lineup with so much power it makes Kanye West envious. It's a job that many ego-less managers could do well.
The best that can be said of Washington is that he stays out of his players' way and doesn't screw things up. If you don't believe me, ask Lee. He says it explicitly here.
Washington's a good guy, but we're giving this one to Bochy.
Advantage: Giants
Final Analysis
Between the Giants' pitching and the Rangers' offense, this is going to be a perilous, back-and-forth series. It will be difficult for the Giants to avoid getting blown out in the hitter-friendly confines of the Ballpark in Arlington. Likewise, it will be hard for Josh Hamilton and Nelson Cruz to slug their way out of AT&T Park.
Look for both teams to struggle in two- and three-game spurts with outcomes ranging from 1-0 shutouts to 8-5 offensive explosions. The personality of this series will be more split than Sally Draper off therapy.
Don't expect many road wins either. Unlike the Rangers-Rays series, the ballparks and team strengths for the Giants and Rangers couldn't be more opposite, which is why home field advantage is so important in this championship series. The Giants have it in their favor (thanks to Jonathan Broxton, ironically) and if they can protect it in Games 1 and 2 with Lincecum and Cain on the mound they'll be in prime position to win it all.
We think San Francisco will come through on both counts. It's going to be a tough matchup, but in the end it'll be Big Time Timmy Jim, baby-faced Buster and bearded B-Dub raising the World Series trophy high above their heads. (Sorry, Nolan Ryan.)
Prediction: Giants in 7
