Jerry Brown Gaining Ground In California Governor's Race
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Race for California
A new Rasmussen Report released Wednesday shows that Whitman is currently pulling 48 percent of the vote, while Brown is garnering 45 percent. Three percent of voters are voting for another candidate, while the remaining four percent has yet to decide.
On Aug. 24, a Rasmussen survey had Whitman leading 51-43. The numbers of both the Aug. 24 poll and the most recent poll include leaners - voters who do not initially indicate a preference but say they are leaning toward one candidate or another.
The latest survey was conducted via telephone to 750 likely California voters. The poll has a margin of error of four percent.
According to the Rasmussen Report Election 2010 Gubernatorial Scorecard, the latest poll results bumps the election from a "Leans GOP" race to a "Toss-Up."
Reach reporter Jenny Chen here.
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Meg's lead in the last few weeks is mostly attributable to a post-convention bump. CA Republican Party has two conventions per year. One was the week of August 21, the other was the week of March 13. These coincide with two relatively short periods in which Meg has been ahead in the race. Jerry's first TV ad started running on Sept 7. The polling period on the most recent Rasmussen is Sept 2-7. We shall see.
Matt,
Thanks for the comment. After taking a look at the Rasmussen literature, you are correct - in the August poll, Whitman led 48-40. The data also shows, however, that Whitman led Brown 51-43 when leaners were included in the total. The most recent data, which is from the September 6th poll, is reported including leaners, because Rasmussen says that at this point in the campaign season, the number including leaners is the best indicator of the race. Because of this, it is appropriate for the reporter to compare the recent number to the Aug. 24 number that included leaners. The article has been updated to specify that the number does include leaners, which will hopefully help clear up some confusion. The first link in the story details this, as well.
You are correct that after the Aug. 24 poll came out the race shifted from toss-up to GOP lean, but the reporter is also correct that with the most recent poll, the race shifted back from GOP lean to toss-up.
Thanks for reading and keeping us on track!
Alexandra Tilsley, news editor
The Rasmussen poll on august 24 said meg Whitman was leading Jerry brown by 48-40.Also after that pole came out it was changed from toss up to GOP lean. Please reference Rasmussen correctly.
Matt