Economists Predict Drop Soon In California's Unemployment
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A panel at the UCLA Anderson Forecast presentation discusses how insurance costs have affected their businesses and employees. (Taylor Freitas)
Jerry Nickelsburg, a senior economist at UCLA, presented the state economic forecast at a quarterly meeting sponsored by UCLA’s Anderson School of Management. Nickelsburg predicted that the state unemployment rate will average 12.2 percent for the year.
According to Nickelsburg, California’s economy is seeing a very slight upward trend, but “there is not a lot of perceptible change," since the last quarter.
He cited the state’s exports through seaports and airports, which are back to pre-recession levels, as evidence of a gradual positive trend for the California economy.
The state also saw increases in imports and tourism, providing slight boosts to the economy as well.
While Nickelsburg reported on California’s economic outlook, UCLA senior economist David Shulman presented a national forecast called “The Uncertain Economy,” and shared his colleague’s concerns about the unsteady job market.
Though California’s unemployment rate is high, it is not the highest in the country. In Nevada the unemployment rate is 14.3 percent.
“We don’t know how to fix it. I don’t think Washington knows how to fix it,” Shulman said.
Shulman expects the national year-end unemployment rate to reach 9.7 percent, near August’s 9.6 percent unemployment rate.
The event also featured a panel of businesspeople who offered their opinions on rising health care costs and how their employees have handled them.
Veronica Gomez, Vice President of Human Resources at La Curacao, a retail business whose workforce is 98 percent Latino, said her company was forced to create more part-time jobs, where health care is not offered, to cut insurance costs.
“We have diluted the actual plan itself…our employees are not happy about that,” she said.
Steven Sell, president of Western Region Health Plan and Health Net of California, said rising health care effects can be a big problem.
“The California worker, who is the backbone of everything we’re doing, is acutely feeling this,” he said.
Despite some minor disputes, the speakers agreed that “health care cost inflation is unsustainable” and will hit its eventual limit, but probably not in the foreseeable future, Snider said.
Reach staff reporter Taylor Freitas here.
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