Democrats could face increased criticism before November's mid-term elections if Rangel doesn't settle before Thursday. (Creative Commons)

Congressman Charles Rangel (D-N.Y.) has less than 70 hours left between Monday afternoon and a House ethics adjudicatory subcommittee hearing on Thursday afternoon at 1 p.m. to make a decision. By then, he must  figure out whether or not he will serve as fuel for Republicans' looking for a negative Democratic story to blow up in the media ahead of this November's mid-term elections.

Before that time comes, Democratic leaders in Congress hope to pressure Rangel into settling with the ethics committee that will release for the first time the charges against Rangel for violating House rules of conduct. Such a deal would put a quick end to the story. Otherwise, the first hearing could quickly turn into multiple hearings throughout the fall once Congress returns from its seven-week summer recess. That means the sting of the initial hearing would remain in the air throughout August before Rangel faces off in a primary election in September to hold on to his seat for two more years.

When the legislative branch resumes official work in September, Democrats want the focus to be on creating jobs through a comprehensive energy bill. The 80-year-old lawmaker from Harlem should be no where near the top of the national news cycle, they hope. And they expect the Democratic stronghold he represents, with a population that is nearly half Hispanic and a third African-American, should still be comfortably in his hands.

Despite an anticipated challenge from social media-savvy Republican Michael Faulkner, Rangel's seat is not in jeopardy. In the Democratic primary, Adam Clayton Powell IV, the son of the man Rangel defeated more than four decades ago to first win his seat will offer even less competition unless he's able to raise hundreds of thousands of dollars from backlash to the ethics hearing.

As of the end of June, Rangel had $516,600 cash on hand to put toward his re-election campaign. That's a paltry sum compared to, for instance, the $3.3 million that Ed Markey, a representative from Massachusetts who entered the House six years after Rangel, has on hand. Rangel's bank account lies in about the middle of House incumbents in terms of available spending cash, but the amount is 10 times more than Powell has.

In the first quarter of this year, Rangel's biggest campaign spending was to pay $142,000 of the $1.7 million and counting he owes to the Manhattan attorneys defending him against House prosecutors.

The only way Rangel will lose his seat is if the ethics committee finds Rangel guilty, and the House votes to remove him from office. Rather than turn on a colleague by kicking him out of their exclusive club, Democratic leadership will point to the votes he receives in September and November as the reason why he's still in office. They will say his constituents applaud his efforts and can move beyond his few mistakes, so he deserves to stay.

Some lawmakers told Politco that Rangel will never get back his chairmanship of the House Ways and Means Committee—which oversees federal revenues by controlling hot-button issues such as who gets taxed and how much, Social Security, Medicare and unemployment benefits. Rangel announced in late May that he would step down from his post until the ethics probe was completed.

At least two members of the House seeking re-election recently distanced themselves from Rangel by announcing they would donate funds they received from Rangel's campaign committee to local organizations. But, others including New York Gov. David Paterson and Senator Kristin Gillibrand have stood behind him. Gillibrand has so far held on to the $29,000 in donations she received from Rangel.

While no one knows what the report due Thursday will say, the ethics committee has previously investigated:

• allegations that Rangel, who has served 20 consecutive terms in the House, failed to pay taxes on a home in the Dominican Republic,
• confessions by Rangel that he failed to report several hundreds thousands dollars in assets as required on federal disclosure forms,
• allegations that he misused a rent-controlled apartment for political purposes, and
• allegations that he locked in tax benefits for an oil-drilling company in exchange for donations to projects he has supported.

President Barack Obama will defray some of the heat put on Rangel Thursday. Obama will become the first sitting president to appear on a daytime talk show when his sit-down with ABC's “The View” airs a couple of hours before the ethic's hearing.

To reach reporter Paresh Dave, click here.