Previewing The Western Conference Finals: Lakers Vs. Suns

Kobe Bryant has once again been the heart and soul of the Lakers in the playoffs.
(Creative Commons)
Absence makes the heart grow fonder, or so the saying goes, and for NBA fans the Western Conference Finals is sure to delight when it resumes Monday night after a seven-day lull.
The Los Angeles Lakers (57-25) have had their name etched in this spot since winning a 16th title last June. Meanwhile, their challenger, the "12 seconds or less" Phoenix Suns (54-28), have defied all odds en route to their first Conference Finals appearance since 2006.
For the Lakers, the second half of the season was about ebb and flow. They managed to secure the top spot in the West despite inconsistent play and untimely injuries down the stretch.
The Lakers were unable to shake doubters during the first four games of their first round series with the Thunder, but a 24-point blowout, a Pau Gasol tip-in at the buzzer and a thoroughly convincing four-game sweep of the Jazz later, the defending champs are playing the part of a team unwilling to part with their championship trophy.
As for the Suns, their unexpected journey to the brink of the NBA Finals represents a total team transformation. All-Stars Steve "One Eye" Nash and Amar'e Stoudemire still lead the team with their presence at the offensive end - and, yes, at times at the defensive end as well (at least in Amar'e's case) -- it is the supporting cast of veterans, castoffs and former underachievers that has been the catalyst for the team's 180 degree turnaround.
From former dunk champion Jason Richardson to first round big man turned 3-point shooting specialist Channing Frye to former superstar Grant Hill , who has re-emerged as a defensive cog in Phoenix's system, the Suns personify the word team.
Although they are the trendiest team this side of the Mississippi River, the Suns haven't done well against the Lakers this year. When the Pacific Division rivals have matched up this season, it has been nothing short of a mismatch. The new-look Suns started the season 16-6, but two of their early losses came via the Lakers, in battles that looked more like Junior Varsity games than a preview of the Conference Finals.
In their first meeting, on Nov. 12, Andrew Bynum propelled the Lakers 121-102 victory with arguably his best game of the season, pouring in 26 points and 15 rebounds, while limiting Amar'e to a measly eight points on 2-of-15 shooting. Less than a month later, the Lakers once again defended their home court with a start-to-finish rout, 108-88, behind 26 points for the Kobe Bryant, or as the kids like to call him "Black Mamba."
In what would be their lone win over the Lakers this season, the Suns delivered a little holiday cheer to their home fans with a 118-103 stomp job over the Lake Show behind 52 points from their bench and stellar individual performances from Robin Lopez (eight points and five rebounds, before he became ROBIN LOPEZ) and Jared Dudley (career-high 19 points) on Dec. 28.
In the most recent matchup, a dog fight to say the least, the Lakers proved they could win on the road even after falling behind early. Amar'e went off for 17 points and eight rebounds in the first quarter of the game, but L.A. responded with a balanced attack (all of their starters scored at least 15 points) that will likely cripple the Suns in this series if it makes a repeat appearance.
BATTLE OF THE BREAKDOWN
Coach - It's hard to argue with 10 titles, especially when it's printed on a black hat with roman numerals. Alvin Gentry has done possibly the most impressive job in the NBA this season, getting this team to reach the WCF with a new identity, but Phil Jackson's experience, pedigree and variety of ring colors gives him the unquestioned edge in this series. Jackson wins this matchup in spite of Gentry's dragon-slaying abilities during the second round matchup with future Hall Of Famer Gregg Popovich. EDGE: Lakers
Point Guard - Derek Fisher is about as savvy as they come at the point guard position in the NBA, but even his knack for clutch 3-point shots and stingy defensive (he held Deron Williams to 38.7 percent shooting in the Conference Semifinals) won't win out in a matchup with two-time MVP Steve Nash, whether the Canadian plays with one eye or two. What the 36-year-old Nash is doing at this stage of his career (fourth straight season shooting 50 percent from the field, 40 percent from behind the arc and 90 percent from the charity stripe, while also leading the league in assists) in orchestrating the highest-scoring, most efficient offense in the NBA is unfathomable, even for someone of his caliber. While his defense has always been porous to say the least, Nash will present matchup problems for the aging Fisher, especially in pick-and-roll situations. EDGE: Suns
Shooting Guard - There is no need for dramatics or stat-filled summaries in this matchup, as it is hard to go against the best closer the game has seen since Jordan and one of the top shooting guards of all-time: Kobe Bryant. Despite off-the-cuff remarks from NBA legend Charles Barkley, who said Bryant no longer has the ability to carry a team on his back consistently at the offensive end, the four-time NBA champion's recent string of offensive outbursts against the Jazz (31, 30, 35 and 32 points respectively) suggests otherwise. While the matchup between he and the Suns' Jason Richardson points to the man with the titles and postseason awards, this showdown may be closer than one would think.
During the playoffs, Richardson is scoring five fewer points per game than Bryant, but he leads the Lakers' captain in field goal shooting (51 percent to 46 percent) and 3-point percentage (52 percent to 38 percent) while also playing five fewer minutes per game. Tellingly, the Suns are 30-4 when Richardson scores over 20 points. While it is safe to say these two won't be matched up against each other too much in this series, the 2007-08 MVP will have a firm grasp on this position battle when the dust settles. EDGE: Lakers
Small Forward - In what appears to be the most intriguing of the positional matchups, defensive-minded forwards Grant Hill and Ron Artest will undoubtedly leave their stamp on this series by defending the other team's most lethal perimeter scorer. The biggest question surrounding the clash of the embattled Artest and the rejuvenated Hill, a man who has had more than his fair share of drinks from the fountain of youth in recent years, will be which player handles the bright lights of the Conference Finals better -- neither one has made it this far in his career.
Hill draws a tougher task in guarding Bryant, one of the top scorers in the game. Unlike Game 4 against the Spurs ,where he left his mark despite pitching in just four points and two rebounds, against No.24 the name of the game will be how much energy he can make the eight-time All-NBA defender exert when the Suns hold possession.
For Artest, who will defend an agile, athletic guard in Jason Richardson, the goal will be to continue focusing solely on basketball-related initiatives (not ripping your HOF coach via social media outlets). Most notably, Artest must focus on ways to extend the Suns' much improved defense beyond the 3-point arc (excluding Game 3, Artest went 2-for-13 from downtown in the second round).
At the end of the day, Artest may fill the stat sheet with more offensive figures, but Hill's productivity at both ends of floor -- despite the tough challenge of trying to suppress Kobe Bryant -- combined with the unknown that always looms over the oft eccentric Artest, gives the former Duke Blue Devil a slight advantage in this series. EDGE: Suns
Power Forward - When discussing the All-Star showdown between Pau Gasol and Amar'e Stoudemire, look no further than the delectable fruits in your refrigerator, because trying to find a clear cut advantage between these two is like comparing apples to oranges. While Gasol's numbers in the playoffs are slightly better -- he comes into the WCF posting a double-double average (20 PPG and 13 RPG), compared to Stoudemire's respectable 20 PPG and 7 RPG -- this matchup of All-NBA Team members is skewed partially by the absence of Robin Lopez.
Although Gasol holds an advantage on the boards and is a little more polished from 14 to 16 feet, Amar'e has thrived (post-trade deadline) on taking what the defense gives him. Whether it's a pick-and-roll with Nash or a self-created opportunity on the offensive glass, Stoudemire is picking apart defenses. His return to superstar status in recent months cannot be undervalued. For the first time in his career, he is becoming proficient at doing the little things it takes to win basketball games. The struggle Amar'e will encounter in this series, however, is that Gasol won't give him much at either end - Gasol is averaging two blocks per game in the postseason.
The 27-year-old Stoudemire has made a new living at the defensive end during the second half of the season, but the Spanish native will force him to play defense away from the basket -- an area where his defensive skills are still somewhat limited. Although pure numbers and head-to-head success suggest Gasol holds the edge, the new Amar'e is a force the Lakers are not familiar with, so with these two it's a toss up. EDGE: Push
Center - In a battle of the walking wounded, a ticket to the NBA Finals may come down to health at the center position. Based on the first two rounds, Andrew Bynum has been a serviceable complementary piece to Gasol down low -- despite playing with a lateral meniscus tear in his right knee. Even at less than 80 to 90 percent, Bynum's presence alone makes the Lakers the best equipped team in terms of size and length. Bynum will surely need offseason knee surgery, but the 10 PPG and 9 RPG he is averaging may be just the contribution the Lakers need against the Suns.
For Phoenix, the situation is a dicey one to say the least. While they have managed to get through the first two rounds with what can only be described as a center by committee (starting Jaron Collins and finishing with Channing Frye), the health of Robin Lopez, who has a bulging disk that has kept him out since March 26, is a popular storyline that will play out over the next few weeks.
Collins pitches in with a steady dose of defense early in ballgames, but his offensive ineptness forces the Suns to play 4-on-5 offensively. The problem in this series for the Suns is that, without Lopez, their secret offensive weapon off the bench, Channing Frye will be exposed at the defensive end trying to guard stronger, post proficient players like Bynum, Gasol and Odom. The proof in this matchup is certainly in the pudding, and, for Phoenix, the only sweet taste they will have is if Lopez can somehow contribute in this series. EDGE: Lakers
Bench - At the start of the season, this question would be a no brainer. One look at Lamar Odom, Shannon Brown and Jordan Farmar and this breakdown would have been finished. But, true to his word, Alvin Gentry has developed a core group of role players who not only provide energy, but also put up solid offensive numbers. As evidenced by their four-game sweep of the Spurs, the Suns have often relied on their bench this season to pull through in big situations. Yet as big a role as Jared Dudley, Goran Dragic and Channing Frye played in taking the Spurs out to pasture in Round 2, matching up against the most talented second unit in basketball will be a tall task to say the least.
The Lakers will rely heavily on Odom, quite possibly the most valuable sixth man in the NBA, to provide a spark in the series should they choose to go small in pivotal moments. Odom will once again be the X factor in this series for Los Angeles. Just as the Suns succeed when J-Rich goes for 20 points or more, the Lakers' success has often hinged on the role Odom plays coming off the pine. Aiding Odom on the second unit will be the explosive Brown, who made crucial shots when the Lakers needed him to during their sweep of the Jazz - he was 3-for-7 from three in Games 3 and 4 of that series.
Although the Lakers came into the season with a much more experienced corps of backups, Sasha Vujevic's health issues, Luke Walton's limited effectiveness and Jordan Farmar's inability to keep up with Phoenix's speed points the advantage arrow in the direction of the Suns. EDGE: Suns
Outcome - While this is a series pitting the expected versus the unexpected, rest assured the WCF will be more than worth the wait. The Lakers hold a definitive size and strength advantage, but the addition of Lopez, a bend-but-don't break defense and a steady dose of bench production will more than make up for what the Suns lack. Combine that with the fact that both teams have terrific home records (L.A.: 34-7, Phoenix: 32-9) and superstars who are not afraid to take over a game regardless of the stakes, and the series is bound to go as many days as it will take to actually start this Western Conference shootout: Seven.
In the end, however, it looks like the 17-year drought in the desert will continue without the Suns reaching the NBA Finals. The Lakers and their cast of A-list fans will be celebrating another Western Conference title en route to a second straight appearance in the championship. In a matchup where age, stardom and experience ultimately cross each other out, the Lake Show holds one decisive advantage: home court. The last time a home team lost Game 7 of the Conference Finals was the 2002 Sacramento Kings -- their opponent that year: the Los Angeles Lakers.
PREDICTION: Lakers in seven