Meg Whitman is leading Jerry Brown 44 percent to 41 percent in a recent survey by USC
and the LA Times (Creative Commons)

Meg Whitman has grabbed hold of a slim lead over former governor Jerry Brown in the race for California governor, according to a new survey released over the weekend by the University of Southern California and the Los Angeles Times.

Whitman's position has been powered by a media blitz over California's airwaves. Of those surveyed in the poll, 75 percent said they had seen a Whitman advertisement, while only 15 percent reported seeing an ad for Brown.

Political analysts from USC and Los Angeles Times staffers held a conference call Monday morning to discuss the results.

The survey was conducted jointly by Democratic firm Greenberg Quinlan Rosner and Republican firm American Viewpoint. The poll asked 1,515 registered voters about their attitudes on candidates for state office and on key issues such as the recently passed health care reform bill and immigration.

Results from the governor's race place Whitman ahead of Brown, 44 percent to 41 percent, when they are pitted head-to-head in the survey.

Pollster Linda DiVall, CEO of American Viewpoint, said one of the most striking items was Whitman's support among independents where she leads Brown, 54 percent to 34 percent. Whitman also holds support across the board in all age groups.

DiVall also noted that Whitman is doing well with women and the Republican candidate has successfully carved out an identity as a business leader who could make a difference in Sacramento.

"With her ads she is seen as somebody who can take control and make sense of it," said DiVall.

Dan Schnur, director of the Jesse M. Unruh Institute of Politics at USC, said the big story in the governor's race so far is the money.

"The amount of money the Whitman campaign has run is
unprecedented in California history and has had a marked effect on the campaign," said Schnur.

The survey shows that Whitman is beating Brown "handily" among voters who have viewed Whitman's campaign advertisements. Demonstrating the difference the ads are making, she is losing among voters who reported they have not seen any of Whitman's ads.

Schnur also highlighted a shift that has occurred in the preference for a candidate with a business background compared to a government background. In a previous USC/L.A. Times survey, the results were evenly split. This time around, a business background is strongly prefered by 33 percent of registered voters, compared to 26 percent for a government background.

"Because of the advertising, Whitman
has been able to move her numbers but also change the preference," said Schnur.

Pollster Stan Greenberg, CEO of Greenberg Quinlan Rosner, talked about how the results show that Brown is doing better among older voters who have a fairly positive attitude about the former California governor. This could be a help for Brown as older voters are much more likely to vote.

"They remember when he was governor...and when the state was in better shape than now," said Greenberg.

Other key points of discussion included:

• Latino voters are breaking for Brown over Whitman, 52 percent to 29 percent. However, the pollsters noted that Whitman's ads have mostly been on English-language media. DiVall commented that, if Whitman chooses to expand into Spanish-language advertisements, she could make her numbers among Latinos much more competitive.

• Sen. Barbara Boxer is doing well when pitted against an unnamed Republican candidate in the general election. Despite the usual anti-incumbent sentiment, Boxer is ahead in the survey, 48 percent versus 34 percent. DiVall said that this is because Boxer and her positions on issues are well-known while her potential opponents are relatively unknown.

• With respect to the state of the economy, Californians in general do not share the same level of optimism as the rest of the nation, according to the pollsters. Only 26 percent of voters believe the California economy is starting to approve and 36 percent said it will only get worse. Greenberg said that this attitude and the low-polling of the legislature and governor "creates an environment for change."

• There is a significant gender gap when voters were asked about the economy. Forty-one percent of men think the situation will get worse while only 32 percent of women think the same. DiVall said this is because "more men are losing jobs and are concerned about their place in the next six to nine months."

• On the question of denying social services to illegal immigrants, there was a marked shift compared to recent years. Forty-seven percent of those surveyed were opposed to the denial of services, compared to 45 percent who support it. "This is an issue with a long and storied history in California," said Schnur. Proposition 187, which was supposed to curtail some services to illegal immigrants, passed with 59 percent of the vote in 1994. "These numbers really represent a sea change largely attributable to age," added Schnur, referring to younger voters' attitudes toward immigration reform.

• Support for President Obama remains strong and stable in California, with total job approval standing at 58 percent.

• When asked about politicians who voted for the health care reform bill, 49 percent of those surveyed said they would be more likely to vote for a candidate who approved the bill. DiVall, however, mentioned that, among independents, only 30 percent of independents believe they will see benefits of the bill soon. This is because registered voters, for the most part, already have medical insurance.