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NFL Week 11 Picks and Preview

Michael Green |
November 20, 2009 | 2:27 p.m. PST

Staff Reporter
PeytonManning
Peyton Manning and the Colts take on a banged up Ravens defense this weekend.

(Creative Commons licensed)

Last week Michael Green returned to form, going 11-4 on his picks. Can he continue to ride the wave of success?

Pittsburgh Steelers (6-3) at Kansas City Chiefs (2-7)

The Steelers failed to score a touchdown for the first time this season against the Bengals last week. To make matters worse, Troy Polamalu re-injured the same knee that forced him to miss several weeks in the beginning of the season. With Polamalu out Sunday, the Steelers need a new enforcer to step up in the secondary against Kansas City.

With Larry Johnson running himself out of town and Dwyane Bowe juicing his way into a suspension, the Chiefs have problems of their own to worry about. Newly acquired wide receiver Chris Chambers will need to rev up his production in Bowe's absence.

Even a banged up Steelers defense will be able to contain the Chiefs' anemic offense. "Big Ben" will keep perfect time in this one and torch Kansas City on the road.

Predicted winner: Pittsburgh Steelers

Indianapolis Colts (9-0) at Baltimore Ravens (5-4)

Bill Belichick helped Indianapolis stay perfect last week in another classic between the Patriots and Colts. Indy draws another tough test in Week 11, traveling to Baltimore. Peyton Manning should start clearing space in his trophy case for another MVP award. He will look to test a Ravens secondary that has been conspicuously average this season.

After toying with the Browns on Monday night, the Ravens get a visit from the class of the AFC. Baltimore will be without linebacker Terrell Suggs, who hurt his knee on a low block by Brady Quinn last week. The injury comes at an inopportune time as Baltimore prepares for one of the best offenses in the league.

Without Suggs pressuring Manning, Indianapolis will remain unblemished this season. The Colts will outscore the Ravens and earn the victory.

Predicted winner: Indianapolis Colts

San Francisco 49ers (4-5) at Green Bay Packers (5-4)

The 49ers managed to snap a four-game losing skid last week with an underwhelming win over the Bears. San Francisco will have an opportunity to compare Alex Smith to the quarterback they should have drafted in 2005 when they visit Lambeau Field this week. The Niners' passing game strikes about as much fear into opponents as a labradoodle, so Frank Gore will be counted on once again to run wild in Green Bay.

The Packers' defense stifled a red hot Dallas offense in an impressive win last week. Green Bay now needs its offense to start clicking against a San Francisco defense that forced five interceptions last week. Aaron Rodgers will be counted on to make smart decisions and navigate an aggressive 49ers secondary.

Green Bay has awakened after a disappointing loss to the Buccaneers in week 9. Their success will continue as they outpace the 49ers this week.

Predicted winner: Green Bay Packers

Buffalo Bills (3-6) at Jacksonville Jaguars (5-4)

The Bills could not justify firing their entire 53-man roster, so they axed Dick Jauron instead. When asked about the team's new philosophy, interim coach Perry Fewell responded with the best gameplan Buffalo has had all year: "Play like hell and win." Good luck, coach!

With each passing week the Jaguars look more and more like a wild card contender. Jacksonville's win over the New York Jets in Week 10 was their most impressive win of the season. Maurice Jones-Drew is in store for another big game this week against a Buffalo defense that surrenders the most rushing yards in the league.

The Jaguars have played well at home all season. They will continue their playoff push with a win against a Bills team in disarray.

Predicted winner: Jacksonville Jaguars

Atlanta Falcons (5-4) at New York Giants (5-4)

At the rate the Falcons' running backs are falling, the team may want to call in Jamal Anderson. With starter Michael Turner doubtful and backup Jerious Norwood questionable, the Falcons may have to roll with third stringer Jason Snelling this week. Doing so will essentially put the offense on the sagging shoulders of Matt Ryan, who has thrown more interceptions than touchdowns in the last six games.

The Giants could play the role of Two Face in the next Batman installment with the way their first nine games have gone. Despite four consecutive losses, the Giants are still just one game behind the division-leading Cowboys in the NFC East. In order to get back to their winning ways, the Giants will need to regain their defensive stride and force the Falcons into turnovers.

Both teams need this came to keep pace in the NFC playoff race, but the loss of Michael Turner hurts Atlanta's chances in this contest. New York will earn a much-needed win at home.

Predicted winner: New York Giants

New Orleans Saints (9-0) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-8)

Defensive injuries and offensive lethargy have slowed the Saints in recent weeks. New Orleans remains undefeated, but their margin of victory has narrowed lately. The Saints barely squeaked out a five-point win against the St. Louis Rams last week. They need to be on upset alert this week in Tampa Bay.

Josh Freeman has stepped in and added a new dimension to the Buccaneers' offense through two starts. But asking Freeman to win in a shootout against Drew Brees puts too much pressure on the rookie. Tampa Bay needs to establish the running game on offense and mount a pass rush on defense in order to beat New Orleans.

A struggling Saints team on the road against a division rival reeks of an upset special, but the Buccaneers will fall just short in a close game. New Orleans keeps the win streak alive.

Predicted winner: New Orleans Saints

Cleveland Browns (1-8) at Detroit Lions (1-8)

Brady Quinn showed last week that the only thing worse than his quarterback play is his blocking ability. After another convincing loss, Cleveland is in prime position to earn the first overall pick in the 2010 draft. Continued offensive ineptitude and poor defensive effort will be crucial to the Browns accomplishing that goal.

Detroit appears to have grown too complacent after earning their first win in two seasons against the Redskins in Week 3. The Lions face a team of similar caliber this week, as they welcome the Browns to Detroit. Cleveland gives up the most yards in the NFL. That ranks them just one spot below -- surprise, surprise -- the Lions.

Do not tune in to this one expecting good defense (or even good football). Offensively, Detroit brings more to the table than Cleveland. Which is kind of like saying electrocution is better than getting struck by lightning. Enjoy the win Detroit.

Predicted winner: Detroit Lions

Washington Redskins (3-6) at Dallas Cowboys (6-3)

Experts agree that an 0-4 road record is a not a good predictor for success when said team travels to another stadium. That doesn't bode well for the Redskins, who play the Cowboys in Dallas this weekend. The Redskins may be without defensive tackle Albert Haynesworth, who sprained his ankle in Week 10.

The Cowboys were moseying their way up the NFC hierarchy until last week, when they lost to the Packers. Green Bay kept Dallas' offense at bay and ended the Cowboys' surge. The Redskins have shut down opposing passing attacks all season, so look for the Cowboys to go to the ground in this one.

A stunning victory over the Broncos has the Redskins feeling good going into Dallas, but what are the odds that Jim Zorn coaches two solid games in a row? Not good. The Cowboys will get the easy win and maintain their division lead.

Predicted winner: Dallas Cowboys

Seattle Seahawks (3-6) at Minnesota Vikings (8-1)

After committing a season-high 13 penalties against the Lions, Minnesota will look to clean up their act against the Seahawks. Adrian Peterson will look to have a breakthrough game against a Seattle defense that has been stout against the run in recent weeks.

Matt Hasselbeck and the Seahawks enter Week 11 coming off a disappointing loss to the Arizona Cardinals. Hasselbeck will look to expose a Minnesota defense that surrenders over 230 passing yards per game. With Julius Jones hurt, backup running back Justin Forsett will attempt to build on his impressive performance last week.

The Vikings are a nightmare to play at home. Seattle will struggle in Minnesota and fall in this contest.

Predicted winner: Minnesota Vikings

Arizona Cardinals (6-3) at St. Louis Rams (1-8)

Remember when Kurt Warner was winning MVP awards and leading the Rams to Super Bowl glory? Neither do the Rams. St. Louis can only hope their former quarterback takes pity on them this week.

With only one loss in their last six games, the Cardinals are in the driver's seat in the NFC West. Warner has thrown for one or more touchdowns in three straight games, and looks to continue that streak against the Rams.

The Rams sniffed a win last weekend, but were ultimately defeated by the Saints. Unfortunately for the Rams, the game this weekend won't be so close. The Cardinals will cruise to an easy win on the road.

Predicted winner: Arizona Cardinals

New York Jets (4-5) at New England Patriots (6-3)

The Jets need a win in New England this weekend if they hope to remain in contention for the AFC East title. But momentum has eluded New York after a strong start to the season. The Jets managed to upset the Patriots in Week 2, and hope to duplicate that result on Sunday behind a good effort from their defense.

Webster's Dictionary needs to put a picture of Bill Belichick next to their definition of hubris after Belichick's decision to go for it on fourth-and-two against the Colts last week. The Patriots hope they won't find themselves in a similar situation against the Jets. Running the ball into the teeth of a Jets defense that gave up 139 yards on the ground last week would be a good start.

The Patriots have been in a New York state of mind since suffering an early season upset loss at the hands of the Jets. They'll get their revenge this weekend and take the heat off of Belichick.

Predicted winner: New England Patriots

San Diego Chargers (6-3) at Denver Broncos (6-3)

After the Broncos stole a victory from the Chargers in Week 6, it seemed unlikely that the Chargers would get a chance to wrestle control of the division from the Broncos. But four consecutive wins by the Chargers and three straight losses by the Broncos have placed the teams in a dead heat heading into this weekend. LaDainian Tomlinson will seek to exploit a Denver defense that has been increasingly vulnerable against the run.

So much of Denver's early success was predicated on defense and ball control. But the Broncos have been lacking both qualities in recent weeks. With Kyle Orton questionable, the team is going to need a solid rushing effort against the Chargers. Knowshon Moreno played well in a loss to the Redskins last week. He will be given the rock often in a critical division showdown.

The Broncos are following a storyline similar to the one from last season, when they let a commanding division lead evaporate just before the playoffs. The Chargers will take advantage of tumultuous times in Denver and come away with a win.

Predicted winner: San Diego Chargers

Cincinnati Bengals (7-2) at Oakland Raiders (2-7)

There may be no greater metaphor for raising the white flag than starting Bruce Gradkowski at quarterback. The Raiders are averaging the second-fewest points in the NFL, and will face one of the best defenses in the league. The Raiders need to either find a new gameplan or petition the league to give them bonus points for futility.

Cincinnati won a field goal competition in Pittsburgh last week and seized control of the AFC North in the process. The Bengals are playing winning football right now. They can thank their defense for that. With Cedric Benson hurt, the team will continue to rely on its D to keep points at a minimum.

This game should be in hand early. Newly acquired running back Larry Johnson may even get some reps for the Bengals' second team as they earn an easy road win.

Predicted winner: Cincinnati Bengals

Philadelphia Eagles (5-4) at Chicago Bears (4-5)

Jay Cutler couldn't pass the Gatorade last week without getting intercepted. The Bears now find themselves questioning the quarterback who was brought in to lead the franchise for the next decade. But recent struggles in Chicago have not all been Cutler's fault. Inconsistent receiver play and deplorable run blocking have put an overwhelming burden on the young quarterback. It is gut check time for the entire offense this week as the Bears take on the Eagles.

Philadelphia has been more spastic lately than a five-year-old on a sugar high. After dismantling the Giants, the Eagles have been torched by the Cowboys and Chargers in subsequent weeks. Now the Eagles face the Bears without the services of Brian Westbrook, who suffered his second concussion of the season last week.

Chicago broke the bank to get Cutler, but Philadelphia will break their hopes of a playoff birth on Sunday. Donovan McNabb will lead the way as the Eagles get back on track with a win.

Predicted winner: Philadelphia Eagles

Tennessee Titans (3-6) at Houston Texans (5-4)

The Titans have taken care of business three consecutive weeks, and have a good chance of making it four as they take on the Texans on the road on Monday night. The turnaround for the Titans began when they inserted Vince Young at quarterback, but superfreak Chris Johnson is the one who has been carrying the team on his back. The speedy running back leads the league in rushing yards. He should exploit a soft Houston defensive front this week.

The Texans enter their matchup with Tennessee rested after a bye week. But Houston still has an unsettled backfield situation. Some combination of Steve Slaton, Ryan Moats and Chris Brown will run the ball for them on Monday, and uccess in the run game will be critical against a stingy Tennessee run defense.

This game will be a battle. Both teams have played great football in recent weeks. In the end, Houston will expose a shaky Tennessee secondary and deliver a home victory.

Predicted winner: Houston Texans
 


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