Two Steps Forward, One Step Back for Republicans
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Republicans picked up two governor's mansions, while the Democrats eked out a win in the topsy-turvy New York 23rd congressional district, and the gay marriage movement suffered another defeat.
New Jersey
It's always tough for a governor to run for re-election during a recession, and this year was no different. Republican Chris Christie defeated incumbent Democrat Jon Corzine, as well as the Independent Chris Daggett, whose campaign flamed out in the last week or so.
The state of New Jersey is a disaster, and Corzine, a former bond trader and CEO of Goldman Sachs who self-financed both gubernatorial campaigns, was never very popular. And Dagget, unlike Hoffman, was no conservative- in fact, he was endorsed by the Sierra Club. Dagget ran more as a reformer. Christie, meanwhile, held on to his lead despite vague campaign statements and his, uh, portly body type.
President Obama looks a little bad after this race, being as though he campaigned for Corzine so heavily, and Corzine tried to tie his own fortunes to Obama. At the same time, no one thought Corzine had a chance a few months ago, before Dagget started gaining in the polls.
Virginia
In the least surprising race of the night, Republican Bob McDonnell decisively defeated (59-41) Democrat Creigh Deeds to become the next Governor of Virginia. Democrats have done well in Virginia lately- Obama won the state last year for the first time since 1964 (i.e., since Civil Rights), and both sitting senators, Mark Warner and Jim Webb, are both Democrats.
In the warm glow of Obama and Warner's 2008 victory, it looked like Virginia was becoming a genuine blue state. That no longer seems the case. On the other hand, Creigh Deeds was ran sort of a throw-back campaign. He was from the part of the state that Sarah Palin once called the "real" Virginia- not the northern part of the state that Obama did so well in. Deeds distanced himself from Obama, which probably hurt him - polls had Obama 9 to 10 points more popular than Deeds. McDonnell, meanwhile, played down his Republican-ness.
New York
No Democrat has won New York's 23rd Congressional District in more than a century, but that's exactly what happened Tuesday night. Democrat Bill Owens defeated Conservative upstart Doug Hoffman (who doesn't live in the district) in a special election to replace John McHugh, who's been appointed Secretary of the Army by President Obama.
This race was quite the soap opera. Conservatives were unhappy with moderate Republican candidate Dede Scozzafava- liberal by national standards, but fairly run-of-the-mill by New York Republican standards. Hoffman ran as a Palin-esque tea party candidate, and his candidacy divided the Republican party. As Hoffman gained in the polls, Scozzafava dropped out and, in a huge surprise, endorsed Owens. It seemed at the time like a strange move at the time (why not just stay in the race and split the republican vote), but now it seems like she knew what she was doing. It looks like Scozzafava supporters listened to her and went over to Owens.
This is a huge defeat for the Glenn Beck / Sarah Palin wing of the Republican party, which was hoping to challenge Republican candidates like Charlie Crist next year. Some conservatives will take solace in the fact that Scozzafava dropped out, and that Hoffman came as close as he did, but they also risk a backlash from moderates like.... uh, Newt Gingrich? Olympia Snowe? David Frum?
It's worth remembering what happened to Ralph Nader after the 2004 election: he became a leper, shunned even by Michael Moore.
(Sidebar: Erik Erickson is calling this a win for conservatives. But if Hoffman had won, wouldn't he have also called that a win? And isn't this the opposite of winning? This, I believe, is what they mean by the word "spin.")
Also, Michael Bloomberg was re-elected, but by a much more narrow margin than had been predicted, despite spending nearly $100 million of his own money.
Maine
Maine's Question 1, which, like California's Prop 8, reverses a law allowing same-sex marriage passed in a close vote (although not close enough to trigger a recount). This is a painful defeat for gay rights activists, who spent a lot of money to defeat this measure in a socially-liberal state. It's worth noting that Obama did not lift a finger to help the No on 1 campaign (just like in California).
It's only a matter of time before gay marriage is legal across the country, but activists are getting tired of waiting. This will only make them more frustrated with President Obama, who keeps dragging his feet on don't ask don't tell.
A silver lining for gay rights was Washington State's Referendum 71, which essentially gives gay couples every right that married couples have except to use the word "marriage," passed by a narrow margin.
What does it all mean?
Many pundits will try to use these elections as a sort of barometer of how Obama (who claimed to be watching basketball and not election returns, while Michelle took the girls to a Miley Cyrus concert) is doing - and by extension, whether or not the public option will pass. One interesting anecdote is that Creigh Deeds said he would opt out of the public option, which is becoming more and more popular in opinion polls. Democrats may see this as a message that it's time to cowboy up on health care.
On the other hand, voters are obviously upset about the economy, and that will favor the party out of power- the Republicans. Independents in Virginia and New Jersey voted decisively for Republicans. This will make Blue Dog Democrats skittish about everything, including health care.
Watching cable news, I heard the phrase "Republican sweep" about 700 times, but buzz over the NY-23 race will counter-balance this.
And lastly, while the Republican civil war will continue, the conservative wing will be discouraged after tonight. The moderate wing of the Republican party has been vindicated, for the time being.
