Kobe Bryant will try to shoot the Lakers back to the NBA Finals.
(Creative Commons Licensed)

Thanks to some key acquisitions and critical losses, the landscape in
the Western Conference is significantly different this season. The
Lakers replaced Trevor Ariza with Ron Artest. The Mavericks took a
gamble on Shawn Marion. And the Spurs added much-needed offense by
trading for Richard Jefferson. Meanwhile, the Rockets lost Yao for the
season, and the Suns shipped Shaquille O'Neal to Cleveland.

If the maxim "the more things change, the more they stay the same"
holds true, the West will play out as it did last season. The Lakers
will win the conference, the Nuggets will get the second seed, and the
Spurs, Trailblazers and Rockets will be trapped in a bottleneck not far
below.
That seems unlikely, though.

The shift in the West has not been small, but seismic. Too much has
changed. Too many teams are ready to be contenders, to take the place
of those that bungled things up and are now on their way out. It's a
near impossibility that things will stay the same.

Teams 1-3 will remain in place, of course. The Lakers, Spurs and
Nuggets won't be overtaken. They are simply too good and too deep. Past
that, it's anyone's guess. The 4-6 spots are up for grabs. As are the
6-8 spots, the ones claimed by the Hornets and Jazz in 2008-09. It's
going to be like the Wild West this season, with three or four teams
battling it out for the last remaining playoff spots.
It's going to be exciting and/or maddening, depending on what team
you're rooting for.
Here's an educated guess about how everything will play out.

1. Los Angeles Lakers - This is an easy choice. The Lakers are
easily the most talented team in the League. Now that they have
championship swagger, it's going to be difficult to stop them.
Sure, the Lakers stumbled early, with a loss to the Mavericks, but have
played well since then. Back-to-back overtime wins against the Thunder
and Rockets show, once again, that they are one of the best teams in
the League at closing games.

Ron Artest has yet to find his rhythm on offense, and Pau Gasol has been noticeably absent, due to a hamstring injury,
but the Lakers just keep on rolling. They're one of the rare teams in
the NBA that can sustain a high level of play even when one of their
best players is injured.

Andrew Bynum is more dangerous than ever, posting the best numbers of
his career in Gasol's absence. And Kobe Bryant is in MVP form,
averaging 31.2 points per game. It seems like nothing can slow this
team down. They have talent at every position and are versatile enough
to match up with any team in the League. Barring injury, they're the
favorite to repeat as Western Conference champs.

2. Denver Nuggets - Everyone thought the Nuggets would miss
Dahntay Jones and Linas Kleiza, but so far Denver hasn't missed them
much at all. Arron Afflalo and Ty Lawson have been excellent
replacements. Meanwhile, Carmelo Anthony has been the most dominant
offensive player in the League through five games. The way he picked
apart the Blazers in the fourth quarter of Denver's 97-94 win
last week was incredible. Melo scored 19 points in the final 12 minutes
of that game. In the first "statement game" of the year, he announced
his presence with authority. Now it's on the rest of the League to keep
pace.

It's early in the season, but Anthony is already getting MVP buzz,
and the Nuggets are picking up where they left off last year. Chauncey
Billups is playing well. And so are Nene and Ty Lawson. Opponents are
going to have a difficult time keeping Denver out of the Western
Conference Finals. They're a talented team with good chemistry and a
lot of confidence. They're going to be a hard team to beat.

3. San Antonio Spurs - The Spurs are an improved team,
especially when it comes to rebounding, and Tim Duncan is still The
Man, but there are a few red flags here. One is the difficulty the
Spurs had against the Bulls on the tail end of a back-to-back last
week. After crushing the Hornets in their season opener, the Spurs
traveled to Chicago and had a difficult time keeping pace with Derrick
Rose and the Bulls, losing 92-85. Granted, it's early in the season and
not every player has his legs yet, but the Spurs should be able to
handle back-to-back situations, regardless of the opponent.
That's one red flag. The other is health related. Tony Parker was knocked to the floor
in the game against New Orleans and was hardly himself the next night,
scoring just eight points in 35 minutes. Parker is okay now, but his
injury shows just how vulnerable the Spurs are. Losing any one of their
three best players - Duncan, Parker or Manu Ginobili - would spell
disaster for San Antonio. They just don't have the depth to account for
that kind of injury.

4. Dallas Mavericks - Adding Shawn Marion gives the Mavericks
another dimension. He adds defense on the perimeter and an athletic
presence that simply cannot be quantified. Josh Howard is a good
player, and plenty athletic, but Marion is a different kind of
presence. He may not be scoring as much as in the past, but he's a
game-changer because he'll come out of nowhere with a crucial rebound
or a jaw-dropping putback. If the Mavericks can keep him happy in the
locker room, he'll be a key addition come playoff time.

Dirk Nowitzki has been playing unbelievably good basketball ever since the Cristal Taylor incident. When he decides to take over a game, he's simply unstoppable. The Jazz found that out firsthand Monday,
when Nowitzki dropped 29 points in the fourth quarter. Nowitzki has
always had this "takeover" quality. The difference is that he's
choosing to use it more often now. He's taking charge instead of laying
back. And the Mavericks are a better team for it.
Dallas desperately needs depth in the front court. It's a shame they
weren't able to sign Marcin Gortat away from the Magic. Otherwise, they're a solid team with enough talent to do some damage in the postseason.

5. Portland Trailblazers - The Blazers are still trying to find
their rhythm. That's evident not only in the win-loss column, where the
Blazers are 2-3, but also in their team field goal percentage. The
Blazers are shooting just 42 percent from the field this season, down
more than four percentage points from last year.

Offseason acquisition Andre Miller is having a difficult time adjusting to his role as backup point guard.
He's shooting just 31.6 percent from the field, and is averaging a
career-low five assists per game. Once Miller settles in, the Blazers
will have one of the most potent second units in the League. Then
again, there's a possibility he won't settle in. In which case, the
Blazers will be in trouble. A disgruntled Miller could seriously
jeopardize team chemistry.

Miller aside, the Blazers need only minor tune-ups to get back to full
strength. Brandon Roy is averaging over 25 points per game, but needs
to improve his efficiency from the field. LaMarcus Aldridge needs to
get more aggressive. And Greg Oden, whose rebounding and defense have
greatly improved this season, needs to stay out of foul trouble.

It's difficult to say when exactly the Blazers will work the kinks out,
but look for them to hit their stride before the All-Star break. That
should give them more than enough time to secure the fifth seed in the
West.

6. Utah Jazz - The Jazz are playing relatively well so far, but
they're having a difficult time closing games. Utah lost back-to-back
games this week due to fourth quarter meltdowns. Their loss to the
Mavericks on Tuesday was particularly hard to swallow. The Jazz were up
by as many as 16 points in the second half, but they allowed Dirk
Nowitzki to run wild in the fourth quarter, and ultimately lost the
game 96-85.

It's uncharacteristic for the Jazz to be so undisciplined. Jerry Sloan
usually has his team firing on all cylinders. But something about the
chemistry seems off this season. Carlos Boozer's decision to stay in Utah
rather than pursue free agency threw a monkey wrench into the team's
long term plans, and it's questionable whether Boozer wants to be there
or not. From his effort on the court, it certainly doesn't look like
it. He's averaging just 12.8 points per game and shooting well below 40
percent from the field.

Deron Williams has been spectacular as always. And Andrei Kirilenko is
enjoying a bit of a renaissance after three years of regression. But
it's difficult to imagine the Jazz finishing higher than fifth or sixth
in the West. Their lack of focus at the end of the games and apparent
chemistry issues are troubling.

7. Phoenix Suns - Yes, the Suns are thriving as a result of
their return to a run-and-gun style offense. Yes, Steve Nash is
enjoying a career renaissance. And yes, Phoenix was one of only a
handful of undefeated teams before Tuesday's loss to the Magic. But
there are a number of fatal flaws that will keep the Suns from
competing at a high level in the playoffs.

First, the Suns don't have a reliable center. Channing Frye is good in spurts, but he got eaten alive
by Dwight Howard Tuesday night, and he'll be eaten alive again when he
goes up against the likes of Chris Kaman and Andrew Bynum. That's not
good.

Second, the Suns are relying too much on veterans like Nash and Grant
Hill. Playing in an uptempo offense has its benefits, but resting
veteran legs isn't one of them. It's unlikely that Nash and Hill can
keep this pace through 82 games without getting hurt or fatigued.

Finally, the Suns' record is inflated by a weak early season schedule.
Phoenix opened with wins over the Clippers, Warriors and Timberwolves;
hardly a Murderer's Row of opponents. The Suns also defeated the Heat,
which is notable. But against the Magic, their first legitimate test,
the Suns were blown apart worse than Jack Black in "The Jackal." They
were simply overmatched. Again, not a good sign.

Phoenix will make the playoffs as long as Nash and Hill stay healthy,
but they'll be neck-and-neck with teams like the Rockets, Thunder and
Hornets. The Suns are more talented and, to an extent, more experienced
than those other teams, which will prove valuable in the final stretch
of the season. But they are a flawed team, and they will struggle in
the playoffs.

8. Houston Rockets - The Rockets are undersized, overmatched and worn by injury. From a talent standpoint, they are severely depleted.
Yao is out for the year, and Tracy McGrady won't come back from
micro-fracture surgery until midseason. Yet Houston continues to win
games. Even without their best players, the Rockets have beat three of
their first five opponents, including the Blazers and the Jazz.
How have they been able to do it? A combination of effort and
efficiency. As of Tuesday, the Rockets ranked fifth in the NBA in
assists per game and seventh in offensive rebounds per game. They're
not afraid to make the extra pass and they'll fight you to the death
for second opportunities.
Led by 6-foot dynamo Aaron Brooks and Lakers cast-off Trevor Ariza, the
Rockets are making a strong case for playoff candidacy. Already they
have a better record than both the Jazz and the Blazers, teams
considered to be playoff locks. If Rick Adelman can continue to get
this kind of effort from his players and avoid further injury, the
Rockets will sneak into the playoffs and give the Lakers hell in the
opening round.

9. Oklahoma City Thunder - Oklahoma City is a very good team
when they can control the ball on offense and avoid turnovers. When
this happens, they are able to set up their half court defense and
limit easy baskets by the opposing team. That wasn't the case last
season. The additions of Etan Thomas and Thabo Sefolosha are helping
them tremendously on defense. However, when the Thunder are sloppy on
offense or are forced into turnovers, they struggle. They simply don't
have the personnel in the front court to play good transition defense.
Nenad Krstic is too slow.

For that reason, so much of the Thunder's success rides on point guard
Russell Westbrook. When Westbrook controls the pace of the offense and
limits turnovers, as he did against the Kings,
the Thunder are a remarkably dangerous team. Kevin Durant can score at
will, as can Westbrook, who significantly improved his jumper this
offseason. But when Westbrook is sloppy with the ball, like he was in
Sunday's game against Portland,
the Thunder are a mess.
Westbrook has improved as a point guard this season, but he needs to
mature even more in order for the Thunder to make the playoffs.
Ultimately, they're a talented team, but they're still a year away.

10. New Orleans Hornets - Chris Paul is one of the most talented, competitive
players in the NBA. But he can't win on his own. And the Hornets don't
have enough consistent contributors around him to compete. The
departure of Rasual Butler means more minutes for Mo Peterson, who has
been in decline since the 2005-06 season, and is shooting just 29
percent from beyond the arc this season. Swingman Julian Wright isn't
mature enough yet for a starting role. And, outside of Peja Stojakovic
and James Posey, the Hornets' bench is suspect.

Emeka Okafor was a terrific pickup at center. He has been a reliable
presence in the middle for New Orleans. But when it comes down to it,
the Hornets are essentially a three-man team. Paul, Okafor and David
West are their only consistent contributors. As such, they're going to
have a difficult time competing with deeper teams.

Thanks to Paul's determination, the Hornets will win games this season
that no one expects them to win. But ultimately they will not make the
playoffs this season.

11. Los Angeles Clippers - In roughly a month, Blake Griffin will return from a broken kneecap
and relieve Al Thornton of his starting duties. This will come as a
huge relief to Clippers fans. Thornton has been awful this season,
shooting 33.3 percent from the field and averaging just 8.2 points in
28.6 minutes of play. On the flip side, center Chris Kaman has been
exceptionally good this season, shooting a career-high 60 percent from
the field and averaging 22 points and 10 rebounds per game.
Statistically, he's the best center in the West right now.

When Griffin is healthy, he and Kaman will challenge Pau Gasol and
Andrew Bynum of the Lakers as the most imposing front court in the
League. Meanwhile, Eric Gordon is having a breakout season, and Marcus
Camby is getting his standard double-double. In other words, the
Clippers are loaded. Other than Thornton's struggles and Griffin's
injury, the only thing holding this team back is Baron Davis' awful
jumper. If they can solve those three problems, the Clippers will be in
playoff contention.

12. Minnesota Timberwolves - Al Jefferson clearly isn't 100
percent yet. The sixth year center is averaging just 16.5 points and
six rebounds through four games. But Jonny Flynn and Corey Brewer are
developing well, and Ryan Gomes is a good stopgap until Kevin Love returns from a broken hand.
When Love does comes back, look for a spike in Minnesota's rebounding
numbers as well an increase in defensive intensity. That should help
them win a few more games. If the Timberwolves can play every game with
the heart they showed on Tuesday, when they took the Celtics to the
wire in a 92-90 loss, they'll win 25-30 games this season. Otherwise,
they'll be neck-and-neck with the Grizzlies, Warriors and Kings in the
"worst in the West" race.

13. Sacramento Kings - From a talent standpoint, the Kings don't
measure up. Desmond Mason and Sean May are hardly starting
rotation-caliber players. In fact, they would be reserves for nearly
every other team in the NBA. But the Kings have good team chemistry.
They seem to genuinely enjoy playing with one another, and are
frequently caught on camera cheering each other from the bench. That
goes a long way. On the nights that Kevin Martin and Tyreke Evans are
able to coordinate their offensive attack, the Kings will be dangerous.
On other nights, they'll simply be a young team having fun playing
together. There are worse fates. [Update 11/6: Kevin Martin is sidelinded with a hairline fracture, and Mason was waved.]

14. Golden State Warriors - Dysfunction reigns in Oakland. Trade rumors continue to swirl around Stephen Jackson, and star-in-the-making Anthony Randolph is unhappy with his playing time.
In the middle of the chaos sits Don Nelson, a stubborn coach who
refuses to settle on a rotation or teach his team to play defense.

Nelson's commitment to offense makes the team entertaining to watch,
but it's difficult to compete on a consistent basis without defense or
team chemistry, and the Warriors have neither. Monta Ellis is
developing as a passer, and Stephen Curry is enjoying a breakout rookie
season, but as a team the Warriors are a mess. They lack the heart and
discipline necessary to be a legitimate contender.

15. Memphis Grizzlies - The Grizzlies look awful. The Allen Iverson experiment is looking less and less palatable by the minute,
O.J. Mayo has arguably regressed, despite his 40-point outburst against
the Nuggets and Hasheem Thabeet has scored just two points in five
games. Zach Randolph is playing well. So is Rudy Gay. But the Grizzlies
lack cohesiveness and a sense of purpose. It's going to be difficult
for them to win more than 20 games this season.