Despite the jump in California's unemployment rate in August to 12.2 percent, one
economist thinks stabilizing home prices and a surge in building permits means
the economy is starting to grow. (Creative Commons Licensed)

The California unemployment rate climbed 0.3 percent to 12.2 percent in August, but one economist still holds that the recession is nearing an end.

"There's nothing negative in the number," Jerry Nickelsburg, a senior economist for the UCLA Anderson Forecast, said of the increase in the unemployment rate. "Unemployment increases at the end of a recession and continues to rise after the recession is over."

California has seen 741,000 job losses this year, according to a Bureau of Labor Statistics report released today.

Nickelsburg points to an increase in exports at the San Francisco and Los Angeles ports, a stabilization of home prices and a surge in the number of building permits issued as signs that the economy is slowly switching from a period of decay to a period of growth.

During the next few months, he said he expects the Oakland and Long Beach ports to also see an increase in trade. Once the American consumer starts buying again, the import, transport and warehouse industries will pick up as well.

Nickelsburg predicted one of the sectors that will continue to see jobs lost is the government, with both the City of Los Angeles and the State of California facing large budget deficits.

Locally, preliminary figures from the state Employment Development Department indicate the the unemployment rate for August was 12.6 percent in Los Angeles County.

Nationally, the unemployment rate was 9.7 percent, also up 0.3 percent from July. Besides California, states that experienced statistically significant increases in unemployment included New Mexico, New Jersey, New York, Oregon and Iowa.

Earlier this week, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said the recession is "very likely over," but that the unemployment rate would continue to suffer due to a lack of job security in the improving economy.

"All the things that happen at the end of a recession are happening now," Nickelsburg said. "The increased signs of economic growth will ultimately lead to job creation."