NBA Preview HED
This piece originally appeared on Kevin Patra's blog "The Sports Union."
The Leastern Conference has now become the LeBronference. There is
very little that King James can't do. He's rounded off his weaknesses:
by picking up his defense, and improving his jump shot has each year
he's been in the league (but please, LBJ, please keep taking it; as a
Detroit fan I'd rather watch you jack up threes at 32% than see you
carry five defenders through the lane as you "count that baby and the
foul" to steal a phrase from my man George Blaha). As good as the
Celtics were last year they just don't have enough to withstand the
Cavs for a series (assuming they are healthy and make it to the
conference finals). You can't take much from Cleveland's recent
blowout of Boston. They were without Garnett and didn't have much to
play for. But as with every defending champion, they lack that certain
fire they had last year. Also, LeBron has that "I just don't give a [editor's cut]"
look during every game. It's the same look Tiger gets on the back nine
when he's down one stroke -he knows he's going to win, and so does the
other guy.
I've made my EC pick fairly evident. But we have a long way until we
get there. An excruciatingly, excruciatingly, excruciatingly,
excruciatingly, excruciatingly (five is enough, no?) long way to go.
Without further ado I will break down the first round match-ups (as
usual in the NBA, don't expect upsets, since switching to the 7-game
format, they rarely happen in the first round).
***
Remember in "He Got Game" when Denzel Washington kept kicking the crap
out of the young Jesus Shuttlesworth, then Jesus morphed into Ray Allan
and it wasn't even close, but the old man couldn't let it go? That's
pretty much what happened to the Pistons-Cavs rivalry. After LeBron
realized he could beat the Pistons by himself, it was the beginning of
the end. Now that the Pistons are a more pathetic version of
straight-out-of-jail Denzel, things could get ugly. Not only can the
'Stons not stop LBJ (who can) they also have no answer for Illgauskas
in the middle (Never thought I'd write that, but unless 'Sheed somehow
wakes up after his yearlong Rip Van Winkle impersonation the limber
Lithuanian will cause havoc down low). Also, they have never been good
against Mo Williams, even when he was on the Buck he would score at
will against the Pistons. The only thing on the Pistons' side is that
they have continually played well over the years when everyone counted
them out. However they were younger, didn't have a rookie head coach,
were hungry, and didn't have to face the best 24-year-old linebacker
the NBA has ever seen. Sorry to say but I'm calling this Cav's in five
(and that one is out of respect).
***
Boston took the seasons series 2-1 but their two wins came before the
mid-season trade that improved the Bulls by bringing them John Salmons
and Brad Miller (18-11 since). Chicago won the most recent meeting on
March 17, but the Celtics were without Kevin Garnett and Brian
Scalabrine (what team can expect to win without its token red-headed
white dude?). Chicago could give the Celtics some trouble, especially
with Garnett coming off injury. Derrick Rose has had several good
games against Rajon Rondo, and can use his size against the smaller and
lighter Rondo. However, they don't have an answer for Paul Pierce, who
went for 37 in the last match-up. Look for the Celtics to help off of
Thomas and Noah and dare them to beat them from the outside. This
could have a similar feel to last years first round match-up for the
Celtics, but in the end they have too much firepower for the Bulls.
Celtics in six.
***
Both teams have backed their way into the playoffs. The Magic losing
four of their last six games, and the '76ers dropping six in a row
before finishing the season with an overtime victory against a
Cleveland squad who was resting some of its key players. This will be
a battle of styles as Philly wants to get up and down (since Elton
Brand went out) and Orlando wants to slow it down spread the court and
dump it into Howard or shoot threes. The playoffs have always catered
to the latter style. The Sixers have a couple bodies to match-up with
Howard down low-Sam Dalembert and Theo Ratliff-but all they are is 12
fouls. They won't make Dwight work or even pay attention to them on
defense leaving him to roam free. Philly's supposed best player, Andre
Iguodala, is second-tier on the court any way you look at it, but
getting paid like a first-tier performer-call him the Keanu Reeves of
basketball. I don't like this match-up for Philly, if it weren't for
Orlando playing shaky down the stretch I'd call it a sweep. Magic in
five.
***
I will be thoroughly disappointed if this series doesn't end up going
seven games. Each team has a ball-handling scorer (Wade, Johnson).
Each team has a undersized scoring big man (Miami actually has 2,
Beasely and Haslem; Horford for Atlanta). Neither team is a great
defensive squad. And both teams have fans who'd rather be doing
something besides sitting in an arena. Wade has been spactacular this
season, and were it not for King James would-in my egotistical
opinion-be the league MVP. The Hawks have absolutely no one who can
even dream about guarding him. Bibby? To slow, too short. Johnson?
Right, you want your best player in foul trouble early in games, that's
the best way to win. Flip Murray? Seriously? (Hey Flip, if your coach
even asks you to guard Wade, please do all the fans a favor and just
sit at the scorers table until your team gets the ball. If he asks why
just say 'coach its better for us to play 4-on-5′ then join the rush on
offense. Wait, what's that you say? You already do that, my
fault...moving on). The Hawks best bet is to put the bigger Maurice
Evans on him and pray to whatever god still lives in Atlanta that the
help-side defense actually gets there when he burns him off the
dribble-over and over and over again. However, from Atlanta's
perspective they have to like how they match-up on offense. Johnson
averaged more than 21 points in the first three games of the series-the
fourth game was a 'don't show'em your cards' game on Tuesday when the
match-up was already set and both teams mainly played scrubs. Also,
they don't have to worry about their smaller lineup getting killed up
front against Miami. I am picturing this series going down to the wire
and Dwyane Wade getting a phantom bailout call to win it on the road.
Now where have I seen that before??? Heat in seven.