Milennial Politics:The Times They Are A Changin'
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They're young, they're restless and they're ready to remake American politics. Millennials -- the generation of Americans born between 1982 and 2003 -- flexed their civic muscles this last election cycle by hitting the campaign trail and voting booths in droves. Record-high turnout among young and first-time voters left politicians, pundits and the public wondering whether this budding interest in politics from American youth, who had been typecast as apathetic and apolitical in recent years, was here to stay or a passing trend, doomed to the same destiny as wearing Uggs with skirts.
According to Morley Winograd and Michael D. Hais, authors of "Millennial Makeover: MySpace,YouTube & the Future of American Politics" there's no question these cyber-savvy, group-oriented 20-somethings will continue to influence and shape American politics. And, drawing upon the predictions of generational theorists William Strauss and Neil Howe, the authors contend Millennials' entry into the political arena was a longtime in the making.
As Barack Obama, the first president elected by Millennials, trucks through his first 100 days in office, Neon Tommy national affairs correspondent Torey Van Oot sat down with the authors to talk about the impact Millennials will have on taxes, immigration and the future of the Republican Party; how a man born on the border of the Boomers convinced young voters he was one of them; and why "My Super Sweet 16," the ultra-consumerist show on MTV, isn't an accurate reflection of the up-and-coming generation.
One of the differences you point out between Millennials and the preceding generational archetypes is how they perceive morality. How does the Millennials' perception of morality and fairness impact the reaction to something like Tom Daschle withdrawing his name as nominee for secretary of Health and Human Services Department and Obama saying, "I messed up, it's my fault," and taking responsibilities?Â
Morley: Taking responsibility is a big attitude shift that Millennials will help reinforce. Millennials believe that social rules are important and that there are consequences for breaking the rules. They may want to negotiate the rules, and that kind of goes back to their days as children when they were disciplined through time outs and they would argue the length of the time out. That's a completely different attitude than the generation that preceded them, the Gen X-ers, for whom rules are to be ignored and they don't really think that they should be subject to rules imposed by anybody in society.Â
So would you tend to think that Millennials would be less tolerant of political slip-ups but more likely to forgive leaders for their digressions?Â
Morley: Absolutely. The refreshing change in the "I screwed up, it's my fault" reaction to the first mistake of the Obama administration demonstrates that the President, even though he's not born in the age group of Millennials, is still very Millennial-like.Â
In an Op-Ed recently published in Roll Call, you predict there will be little-to-no use of ideological labels in this age of Obama. What about this concept of post-partisanship -- is that an ideological label?Â
Mike: In eras dominated by civic generations, people in the public tend to identify more strongly as individuals with political parties. So in fact Millennials are much more likely to identify either as Democrats -- as they do to about a 2-to-1 margin over Republicans -- or much likelier, Independents. But what they really expect is that since we're trying to resolve issues, particularly in a time of crisis, while people may think of themselves as Democrats or Republicans, primarily they need to think of themselves as American and work beyond party labels ... and, while acting in a post-partisan or bi-partisan manner, with the other party to resolve issues.Â
Morley: Millennials enjoy being on a team and certainly root for their team to win, but they don't want to win the game with bad sportsmanship. And so in the political arena it comes out as a much greater likelihood or tendency to... be either Democrat or Republican but not at the expense of being a bad sport of taking your team's interest ahead of the country or ahead of the game. You still have to play by the rules.Â
Post-partisanship in this era is not what many in Congress think it is -- when one Democrat and one Republican reach a compromise that takes a little bit from one guy and a little bit from the other and neither side gets all it wants in order to get something they both agree on -- What we're arguing is that we're actually in a world of post-partisan behavior where both parties look for a win-win solution that works for both sides ... because it addresses a higher cause, a higher need that satisfies everybody.Â
So how do Millennials react to the economic recovery package in general and House Republicans voting "no" in a block against the stimulus plan? Is that perceived as "bad sportsmanship?"Â
Mike: Polling data suggest that Millennials certainly do believe more than older generations that government has a major roll to play in this. Having said that, I think they would also look at the issue and figure, "These guys have got to get it together." They want Congress to try to figure out a way to get this done. They recognize it will involve some government spending, it will involve perhaps some tax cuts but they want to get it taken care of, instead of simply saying we should blame one party or the other. They are Democrats, so by in large their sympathies will be in that direction, but I don't think they're going to give Democrats a blank check on this either.Â
You note in your book, "Millennial Makeover," that even before the stimulus spending, in order to pay off the national debt, you'd have to at least double federal income taxes for the rest of my lifetime. As part of this sort of team player mentality, do you foresee the Millennial Generation being more receptive to tax increases?Â
Morley: Yes, civic generations in the cycles of American history have traditionally been more supportive of higher burdens of taxation. Millennials would be much more in favor of steeply progressive income taxes that would encourage a greater degree of economic equality then they would simply raising taxes. So there would be a lot of support for the Democrats' plan and the Obama administration's plan to let the Bush tax cuts expire. In the 1940s, the last civic generation, the GI generation's support for these ideas gave us marginal tax rates of almost 90 percent for wealthy individuals. Millennials are also likely to support taxes that tax consumption more than taxing income or work.Â
For example, a gas tax?Â
Morley: Yes, because unlike the generation that preceded them, the Gen X-ers, Millennials are not shoppers, they're not consumption alcoholics, they are much more interested in preserving the earth and keeping things within limits and consumption tends to be a bad word as opposed a good word.Â
Mike: I think that's true of things that might be considered luxury items. ... So if a person wants to have a very expensive car, they can certainly have it, but it's only legitimate or justified if they are taxed for it.Â
Now I've always thought of Millennials as being portrayed, especially by the media, as very consumer-driven. You read about little kids going to spas and watching gross excess on "My Super Sweet 16"-- Is that more of a reflection on the generation just a little above us, or our parents?Â
Morley: Yes, it's a reflection of the generation just above you, Gen X-ers. It's a portrait written by Boomers. Some people call Gen X Cuspers Gold Collars because they were so interested in shopping, but that's fading away very rapidly and continues to do so.
In the book, which you started working on far before the election, you describe the seeds of this civic realignment, which seems to create a perfect storm for his election. How much of Barack Obama's victory was him the candidate, and how much was the realization of this shift that had already started?
Morley: Winning political campaigns and losing them, too, has to do with the "four Ms" of politics: you've got to get the media, the message, the messenger and the money, together. What Obama proved was that he understood and was comfortable with the new media, in terms of social networks, peer-to-peer communication, letting go of control, the things that no other candidate was willing to do in the race. But that would not have been sufficient had he not also had the message and the messenger right.
His message of unity and hope and everybody coming out better was appealing to Millennials and the perfect kind of message to put out on a new media of social interaction, compared to hot rhetoric, or screaming at people, which doesn't work on social networks.He couldn't do anything about the messenger part, but as we just said, he was also the perfect messenger for that message given his biracial background, his living abroad, and his work as a community organizer, which reinforced sort of the civic spirit. Now all of that led to him getting a lot of money, too, but if he had been out of sync with one of those, he probably would have done as well as say, Ron Paul, who had the media but not the message and and certainly not the messenger.
In using peer-to-peer communication and social networking as the messenger, you risk, as political consultant Joe Trippi has pointed out, losing control of the message. Do you think Obama's message was successful because his message of hope and unity resonated so deeply with people that they were loyal not just to the candidate or campaign, but to the message itself?
Morley: Yes, once [voters were] enrolled in the vision, [Obama] really didn't have to use other means of control to keep control of the message because everyone got the message and agreed with it. But one of the things we are witnessing in his first few weeks of president is the greater difficulty of getting that done when you're not leading a sort of cause campaign, you're leading a process to get people to change and accept responsibility. ... He still hasn't found the precise way to run a peer-to-peer persuasive campaign as president and he's still looking for that. First we had change.gov and now we've got Organizing for America, but it hasn't really gelled or come together yet.
Millennials also seem to demand a level of authenticity in the application of technology for political communication purposes. There was a great skit on the "Daily Show" that mashed up YouTube spots from different Congressional Offices. The whole thing seemed like kind of a joke because the politicians don't seem comfortable with the format -- the creation of the media is forced, not organic. How important is it that everyone hires Millennials to get not just the technology, but the use of the technology right?
Morley: Of course, in the private sector, that's been the only solution. There will be a lot of opportunities for Millennials in government service if for nothing else, people will want their tech savvy.
Mike: Where i think Millennials will be most helpful is not just understanding the medium but understanding the message, understanding how to craft the message that appears on that. In the '60s and '70s Republicans were much better at utilizing television and talk radio and Democrats thought, "All we need to do is adopt that medium and we've got that problem licked," but it was the wrong message being delivered over that medium at the wrong time.
Is this how you explain why Hillary Clinton's attempts to incorporate new technology into her campaign communications -- such as the Sopranos spoof YouTube video -- fell flat on its face, while the "Yes We Can" mashup, created by Obama supporter Will.i.am, was such a huge hit?
Morley: Yes. Clinton's using a brand new technology, and what does she do with it? She takes the old technology of television and does essentially a non-interactive, "here's our clever story" presentation. Boomers would think, "wow that's really great, they created a little short television thing," and Millennials will say, "But I want to find out what she really thinks."
So then the Will.I.Am video comes along and says "we're all one group, we're all one family and we have to work together," and it allows and gives people an opportunity to do so. You can mash it up, you can do your own thing, whatever you want with it. Completely different.
You contend in your book that crisis is a necessary ingredient for a civic realignment but that Sept. 11 and Katrina weren't big enough events. Is the current state of the economy a big enough crisis to signal this type of shift?
Morley: Absolutely. In the paperback version, we have an afterword about 2008 and we basically say the civic realignment occurred the week of Sept. 15, 2008 when Wall Street melted down and the country moved into a whole different economic environment. It shifted the American public opinion in the presidential election. It also shifted everybody else in the country who said, "We need regulation. What was all this deregulation talk? Where did that come from? We need government intervention." That's all a triggering event for a civic realignment.
Mike: Civic realignments have occurred really at times across history when the whole viability or even existence of the country or of the republic is threatened. I think we are at a point which is approaching that level where the whole viability of our economic system is really at question at this particular time.
So we're in full swing civic-mindedness. What about people who say that if the stimulus doesn't work, if the economy isn't fixed by 2010, it's going to be a whopping for Democrats in the midterms?Â
Morley: We would point people to 1934, that's when the last civic era began. FDR tried a whole bunch of things, just like Obama's trying a lot of things. The country got a little better. It wasn't great, but it was better than it was. FDR got all the credit for trying something and the Democrats gained Congressional seats in 1934 and the Republicans were stunned and of course that wasn't the end of their defeat. 1936 was an even bigger electoral landslide for the New Deal.Â
We think what is going to happen is President Obama and the Democrats will gain support from the electorate for trying something new, and I think people will have a surprising level of tolerance for how long it might take to make it better.Â
How do centrist Republicans, like Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine), fare in all of this?
Mike: Traditionally, civic eras are times when political parties figure out a way to work across the aisle and you don't have the ideological divisions. In the 1940s and '50s there were plenty of centrist Republicans, they used to call them liberal Republicans, and it was a very important wing within the Republican Party. Over the past 10 or 15, 20 years, liberal Republicans or moderate Republicans have disappeared and moderate Democrats have disappeared, gone. What we would expect in this era that there is an opportunity of growth for moderate or liberal Republicans.Â
You note that Latinos, African-Americans and Asians represent about 40 percent of the Millennial generation. Latino Millennials are especially interesting to look at because that was such a hot voting bloc in this past election -- We saw real ideological shifts, with more Latinos supporting the Democratic Party. Voter turnout was up among Latinos as well. 40,000 U.S.-born Latinos turn 18 each year. How does the growing Latino population and increased interest in this voting bloc shape the views and collective ideologies of the generation?Â
Morley: Twenty percent of Millennials have an immigrant parent. Not all immigrants are Hispanic obviously, but you can get some sense of the power and importance of the Hispanic operation within this generation. Their movement to the Democratic Party is partially a result of the Republicans insisting upon a relatively harsh and punitive approach to immigration. Now Millennials love their parents, unlike other generations, and so when people talk badly about immigrants, Millennials think, "Wait a minute, you're talking about my mom and dad! They struggled to get here, and they worked hard to create a life for me in this country. Why do you want to penalize them?" And so part of the movement toward the Democratic Party was this kind of Hispanic Millenial reaction toward the Republican emphasis on a less inclusive immigration policy.Â
Historically, civic generations, like Millennials, like the GI generation before them, have always had a large component of immigrants in their population. In every case, that has led to immigration law reform that takes into account the nature of the families that these people grew up in. We expect that Millennials will cause Congress to finally address a more comprehensive and inclusive, rather than exclusive, immigration policy.Â
Mike: This is also a generation that dates across and marries across ethnic lines ... and also tends to vote across ethnic lines. It is the only generation, for example, in which a majority of white people actually voted for Obama. It is a generation that, because of its diversity, found a candidate like Barack Obama very comfortable, very appealing because he was, in many respects, like themselves.Â
Is the tendency to be "more inclusive" true across the board -- with Democrat and Republican Millennials? Did this impact the elections of Gov. Bobby Jindal (R), the first non-white to serve as governor of Louisiana since reconstruction, and Rep. Joseph Cao (R-Louisiana), the first Vietnamese-American elected to Congress?Â
Morley: I think you'll find a winning candidate that tends to have a more mixed background a more inclusive history. That doesn't mean there won't be plenty of people still running and campaigning based upon ethnic identity and racial politics, that's true in both parties. That whole identity politics thing is not a current way that will last into this era, but that doesn't mean there won't be people who aren't that way.Â
The next generation is what you describe as an adaptive, or recessive generation type. Can you predict what effect this generation -- children born since 2004 -- will have on American politics?Â
Morley: They are over-protected and indulged as children. They will have to come along and fix the excesses of the civic era that the Millennials are going to create... smooth out the rough edges. But they'll be mild changes in comparison to the ones their children will make. Their children will be the next Boomer generation who will tell their parents that they're all wrong.
Our favorite line if they're going to say to their parents: "You're so virtual. Let's get real."Â Â
